When global events create uncertainty, it’s natural to wonder what it might mean for your financial future.

Moments like these are exactly why a thoughtful plan exists in the first place — to provide stability when headlines feel unstable.

To Our Clients: Please know that your situation, your strategy, and the path toward what matters most in your life continue to be reviewed carefully. While markets may react in the short term, your long-term direction remains grounded in disciplined planning and intentional decisions.

With that reassurance in mind, here is some perspective on what has happened and what it could mean moving forward.

Understanding the Recent Events

On Saturday, February 28, the United States and Israel launched joint airstrikes on Iran. As part of this operation, Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed. As expected, this development has created increased volatility in financial markets — particularly in oil.

Significant time has been devoted to analyzing the situation and understanding how it could affect clients and portfolios. The primary objective remains unchanged: helping families stay on track toward their goals with clarity and confidence.

Before discussing markets, it is also important to acknowledge the human side of events like these. Thoughts remain with members of the armed forces and innocent civilians impacted by conflict. While this message focuses on economic implications, the human impact always matters most.

How Markets Typically Respond to Geopolitical Conflict

No one can predict the future with certainty. However, history provides helpful patterns.

Markets often react to geopolitical crises in fairly consistent ways.

Initially, more risk-averse investors tend to sell quickly. Conflict disrupts production and trade, and disruption creates uncertainty — the primary driver of volatility.

After that, one of two paths usually unfolds:

Scenario 1: Conflict resolves relatively quickly.
Markets often rebound after the initial decline as investors move back in or take advantage of lower prices.

Scenario 2: Conflict continues.
Investors gradually absorb the news and begin treating the situation as just one factor among many influencing markets.

Signs of this adjustment may already be visible. On Monday, March 2, major indices fell early in the day but recovered losses by the afternoon.¹ Sometimes this digestion process takes days. Other times, weeks or months. In both cases, volatility eventually settles.

Because of this pattern, geopolitical events frequently have shorter-term market effects than many expect.

For example:

• During the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 — one of the most dangerous periods in modern history — the Dow fell only 1.2% and finished the year up 10%.²
• When Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, the Dow declined more than 18% but recovered completely within a few months.³
• When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, energy prices surged sharply, but within a year oil markets had largely absorbed the impact.⁴

History never guarantees outcomes, but it does offer perspective.

Why This Situation Still Deserves Attention

While markets often recover from geopolitical shocks, this conflict is larger in scale than many recent events.

Iranian counterattacks have already reached nearby countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. Because of this, it is impossible to predict how long the conflict may last or whether it could widen. Investors may be processing an ongoing stream of changing information rather than a single event.

The biggest uncertainty currently centers on oil.

A few important facts help explain why:

• Iran produces approximately 4.5% of the world’s oil and shares the largest natural gas reserves globally.⁵
• Iran controls the northern side of the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes. Roughly 20.9 million barrels of oil pass through daily, about 20% of global consumption.⁶
• Energy facilities in nearby countries have already been struck, forcing some production suspensions. Several major shipping companies have paused operations in the region.

At this time, the Strait of Hormuz is not completely closed, and any closure would likely be temporary. However, even temporary disruptions can cause oil prices to rise.

Higher energy costs can influence:

• Shipping and travel expenses
• Food prices
• Supply chains
• Inflation
• Interest rates
• Corporate earnings

All of which can create short-term pressure on markets.

The key takeaway: geopolitical conflicts rarely cause lasting market damage, but short-term discomfort is possible.

The Most Important Principle During Uncertain Times

Conflict creates change.
Change creates uncertainty.
Uncertainty often triggers overreaction.

Many investors lose ground during volatile periods not because of markets themselves, but because long-term decisions become driven by short-term emotions.

The situation in the Middle East may evolve daily — even hourly. Headlines that appear alarming in the morning may change by afternoon. Reacting emotionally to rapidly changing information rarely improves outcomes.

Historically, maintaining a disciplined strategy has been far more effective than making sudden decisions during uncertainty.

Ongoing Analysis and Commitment

Continued evaluation of new information remains a priority. If circumstances change in a way that requires action — whether to protect or to take advantage of opportunities — adjustments will be made thoughtfully and communicated promptly.

Questions, concerns, or worries are always welcome. Emotions during uncertain times are natural and valid. The goal is simply to make decisions with clarity rather than reaction.

Serving families through changing markets and uncertain environments is a responsibility taken very seriously. The Cornerstone philosophy has always centered on helping people:

Dream boldly.
Build intentionally.
Lead confidently.

That commitment remains unchanged.

If a conversation would be helpful at any point, please reach out.

Not a Cornerstone Client?

Schedule a no-pressure conversation to see how today’s headlines could affect your investments and income plan, and what changes (if any) might make sense for you.

Sioux Falls:  605-357-8553
Huron: 605-352-9490
Email cfsteam@mycfsgroup.com

1. “S&P 500 turns positive in dramatic comeback,” CNBC, cnbc.com/2026/03/01/stock-market-today-live-update.html
2. “How Markets Respond to Geopolitical Crises,” A Wealth of Common Sense, com/2017/06/how-markets-respond-to-geopolitical-crises/
3. “Stock Market History: More Ups Than Downs,” Forbes, September 27, www.forbes.com/sites/johndobosz/2017/09/20/stock-market-history-more-ups-than-downs/?sh=71324c093951
4. “Oil market has fully absorbed impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” Reuters, reuters.com/business/energy/oil-market-has-fully-absorbed-impact-russias-invasion-ukraine-kemp-2023-03-09/
5. “Iran’s main oil and gas production and infrastructure,” Reuters, reuters.com/world/middle-east/an-overview-irans-energy-industry-
6. infrastructure-2026-02-28/
7. “The Strait of Hormuz crisis explained,” CNBC, cnbc.com/2026/03/02/strait-of-hormuz-crisis-us-iran-israel-war-shipping-trade-oil.html

CSP #1025042, exp. 3.3.27

Every January, it’s customary to look back on the year that was. What were the highlights? What were the “lowlights”? What events will we remember? Most importantly, what did we learn?

When I play back the last twelve months in my head, the theme of 2025, to me, can be summed up by three words, three dates, and three numbers:

LET’S START WITH THE WORDS

In December, three of the world’s most popular dictionaries selected their “word of the year.” Merriam-Webster chose slop: digital content of low quality that is produced usually in quantity by means of artificial intelligence.¹

The Oxford Dictionary chose rage bait: Online content deliberately designed to elicit anger or outrage by being frustrating, provocative, or offensive, typically posted to increase traffic to or engagement with a particular web page or social media content.²

Finally, Dictionary.com selected six-seven (sometimes written as “67” but not to be confused with the number “sixty-seven”). Confused? So’s everybody else. Even the dictionary experts didn’t really know what to make of it, defining it as “a viral, ambiguous slang term” and describing it as “meaningless, ubiquitous, and nonsensical.”² In other words, it doesn’t really mean anything.

If you’ve been online at all this year, you’ve likely encountered at least one of these words. You may have seen AI slop in the form of fake, low-effort pictures and videos. You’ve likely come across rage bait in the form of an inflammatory Facebook post or fear-mongering news headline. And you may have seen one of the “six-seven” memes floating around social media.

Normally, I don’t pay much attention to the word of the year. This time I was struck by something. When you get right down to it, all three words are about things that are fake. Not just in the sense that they often represent things that don’t exist, but in the sense that they are almost never genuine.

Between videos on social media, headlines meant to provoke, and the volume of information available, so much of our time is spent trying to detect what’s true, what’s being exaggerated, and what’s downright fabrication. Those three words sum up just how much around us, especially on our devices, is fake…and how exhausting and demoralizing it can be to detect them.

DIGITAL NOISE AND MARKET UNCERTAINTY

What does this all have to do with finance? Well, thinking about it made me realize how much time investors can spend trying to figure out what is genuine and what isn’t.

Rewind back to the start of 2025 when investor sentiment was mixed. There was hope about the prospect of cooling inflation, falling interest rates, and lower taxes, but concern about the possibility of tariffs and a new trade war with China. President Trump had repeatedly threatened a variety of tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico, and other countries. Would he do it? How would other countries respond? What kind of impact would it have? Was it real, exaggerated, or all just a bluff?

Macroeconomics can be difficult for investors to understand. The economy and the stock market are not the same, but they can indirectly affect each other. I remember the questions nearly every market commentator was asking at the beginning of 2025: How will tariffs impact inflation? How will inflation influence interest rates? What will interest rates do to consumer spending? How much will spending continue to drive economic growth? We considered those questions, too. But investors can easily twist themselves into knots trying to figure out what matters and what doesn’t.

THREE DATES & THREE NUMBERS THAT SHAPED THE YEAR

By February 19, despite a flurry of tariff announcements from the White House, most investors decided to shrug off all the trade war talk. The S&P 500 reached 6,144, its second record high in two days, boosted by the hope that tariffs were more a bargaining chip than a reality.³ It would be the last one for a while.

On April 8 the S&P closed at 4,982, nearly 19% below its February 19th high.³ President Trump’s promise of “Liberation Day” tariffs, a broad and historically high slate of import duties on China, the European Union, and other countries had so spooked investors that the S&P’s value had slid all the way back to where it had been a year prior.

Investors wondered: Is this a real bear market, or just a correction? Are the tariffs permanent or temporary? Everywhere you looked, there were headlines, videos, podcasts, and posts with different information, often with titles like “The Markets Are Just Like They Were in 19XX. Here’s What Experts Think You Should Do Next.” Or “The Last Time the Markets Did X, Y Happened.” What was real? What was exaggerated? What was fake?

And now to the third date: December 26. The S&P 500 hit its most recent all-time high of 6,945.3 (As of this writing – that number may be different by the time you read this.) The index later closed the day slightly lower, but for a brief moment, it was up a staggering 39% from where it landed on April 8.

A YEAR OF EMOTION, ADJUSTMENT, AND RECOVERY

What prompted this incredible turnaround? If I had to sum it up in a single sentence, it would be, “The normalization of things that previously caused uncertainty.” As many of the Liberation Day tariffs were canceled, suspended, or lowered, investors got used to the idea, emotions settled down, and the markets normalized. That enabled investors to turn their attention to other things, like falling interest rates and investments into AI by tech companies.

The end result: 2025 was a fascinating and ultimately highly positive year for stocks.

But what was interesting about December 26 isn’t that the S&P hit an all-time high. That’s a common occurrence in a bull market. What was interesting is that gold also hit an all-time high on the very same day…something that hasn’t occurred since 1975.⁴ Gold is often used as a hedge against stock market volatility, so for both stocks and gold to hit record highs at the same time suggests many investors are feeling cautious about the future despite the stock market’s success. The cycle begins again: What’s real and what isn’t? What’s signal and what’s noise?

All of these questions are difficult enough. But modern investors also have to contend with other distractions. You wouldn’t have to look hard, on any given day, to find hundreds of articles, videos, podcasts, and posts all designed to confuse you. “Invest in X / Don’t invest in Y.” “It’s time to buy / It’s time to sell.” “Here’s what experts think you should know / Here’s what the experts don’t want you to know.” Some of this can be helpful…but much of it is slop, rage bait, or just plain wrong.

What’s an investor to do when confronted with all this confusion and noise? This brings me to what I think is the real theme of 2025, the most important lesson the year can teach us: 

Success isn’t about constantly trying to detect what we think is fake.

It’s about valuing what we know is real.

WHAT DO WE KNOW IS REAL? 

Let’s start with the dreams and goals you’ve had for years. Those are far more tangible and significant than anything digital could ever be. By focusing on why we invest — for the places you want to see, skills you want to learn, milestones you want to reach, and the people you want to do it all with — we prioritize the meaningful over the distractive. Distractions like daily market movements or the bewildering deluge of slop and rage bait we are flooded with every day.

Another thing? Cornerstone’s investment process. A process far more tried and proven than trying to decipher headlines or wrestling with probabilities could ever be. By focusing on the process we know to work, we can rely on the principles we know to be real…like diligence, patience, and discipline. That’s why we didn’t need to predict everything that would happen in order to have a successful year as investors. We just needed to hold to our process.

And of course, there’s the most real thing of all: The people and relationships that bring true meaning to your life. There are so many voices vying for our attention – on our phones, TVs, car radios, and social media feeds.

The more we tune them out and focus instead on the people who we know care about us, the more we fill our days with all that is genuine and authentic, the more everything that’s fake, frustrating, and unreliable gets filtered out. Slop, rage bait, it all just…fades away.

That’s why I’ve chosen a new “word of the year” for 2026 – meaningfulness. For the more we hold to that word, the more we prioritize it in thought and deed, the more we will know that we are truly on the right path…to the life we were always meant to live.

It was our honor to serve you this past year. We look forward to serving you for many more years to come. Here’s to a happy and meaningful 2026!

Warmly,

Gordon Wollman, MS-Financial Planning, CFP®

Founder & CEO, Cornerstone Financial Solutions

Wealth Advisor, RJFS

Sources

¹ “2025Word of the Year: Slop,” Merriam-Webster, https://www.merriam-webster.com/wordplay/word-of-the-year

² “2025’sWords of the Year, So Far,” Time, https://time.com/7334730/word-of-the-year-2025-cambridge-collins-dictionary-oxford-merriam/

³ “S&P500 Historical Data,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-historical-data

⁴ “TheS&P 500 and Gold Are at Record Highs,” Barrons,  https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-122625/card/the-s-p-500-and-gold-are-at-record-highs-that-s-not-supposed-to-happen–Ras47ZC0A5FwZ556upxY

Raymond James advisors do not provide tax or legal services, you should discuss these matters with the appropriate professional.

Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. No investment strategy can guarantee your objectives will be met. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Every investor’s situation is unique, and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment decision.

The S&P 500 is comprised of approximately 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. It is unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. CSP #975954 Exp. 1.6.31.