Key Insights from Cornerstone’s Investment Committee Q1 2025

Feb 13, 2025 | Investing

Economic Outlook: Optimism with Cautious Considerations

We recently held our internal Cornerstone Investment Committee meeting to discuss various topics as we approach 2025. As always, we prioritize proactive market strategies, evaluating economic trends and potential risks to navigate changing conditions effectively.

There’s a sense of optimism around U.S. policy, the economy, earnings growth, consumer confidence, and business confidence. The best-case scenario includes resilient consumer spending driven by healthy job growth, fiscal stimulus from programs like the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act, and continued investment in transformative sectors like artificial intelligence. However, we also considered a worst-case scenario: a potential recession triggered by the Federal Reserve over-tightening, leading to a collapse in consumer and business spending.

 

Interest Rate Scenarios: What Lies Ahead?

We discussed how economic growth could support robust job creation while disinflation might continue, fueled by falling energy prices, retail discounts, a strengthening dollar, and potentially declining shelter costs. However, tariffs remain a wildcard, with inflationary implications that could disrupt this outlook.

Two possible interest rate scenarios were explored:

  1. Rates declining due to moderating growth, decelerating inflation, and Fed easing.
  2. Rates rising due to tariff-driven inflation, stronger-than-expected growth, or increased government spending.

 

Mid-cap Stocks, Key Sectors, and Global Positioning

Regarding equities, mid-cap stocks appear well-positioned as they balance exposure to U.S. economic strength while being somewhat insulated from tariff risks. Small caps may struggle if the Fed refrains from aggressive rate cuts next year. We also identified technology, healthcare, and industrials as key sectors to watch, given their potential for strong earnings growth. The U.S. is likely to remain the strongest performer globally, thanks to superior economic growth, dynamic corporate leadership, and exposure to preferred sectors.

 

Political and Policy Impacts on Markets

The conversation then shifted to political developments. President Trump’s return to office brings the potential for sweeping tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, with the Senate playing a pivotal role in confirming his key appointments.

The debt limit, which requires bipartisan support, is likely to become a priority in the first half of 2025. Deregulation efforts by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could enhance cybersecurity and overall government efficiency.

Additionally, we discussed the potential extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, with scenarios ranging from a 4-5 year extension costing $2 trillion to a 10-year proposal estimated at $4.6 trillion. New provisions, such as eliminating taxes on tips and overtime, are likely to benefit lower-income households.

We touched on commodity markets, including volatility in oil and the impact of tariffs on critical resources like copper, lithium, and uranium. Concerns around inflation and interest rates persist, particularly for longer maturities in fixed income if inflation remains elevated.

Key Insights from Cornerstone’s Investment Committee Q1 2025

Global Market Trends and International Exposure

From a global perspective, we see uncertainty across markets in China, the Eurozone, emerging markets, Japan, and the UK. As a result, we’re maintaining a cautious stance on international equities, reducing exposure to funds like Euro Pacific Growth and Vanguard International Value in favor of a Vanguard Foreign Large Cap Blend Index Fund to manage volatility and focus on stability.

During our Q4 2024 review, we noted several key developments:

  • The Federal Reserve cut rates, but headline inflation accelerated for two consecutive months.
  • President Trump won the presidential election, with Republicans sweeping both the House and Senate.
  • The Fed’s balance sheet dropped below $7 trillion, the lowest since May 2020.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield rose 87 basis points, reaching a seven-month high.
  • The S&P 500 posted its fifth consecutive quarterly gain, ending the year with over 25% total returns for the second straight year.
  • European equities underperformed global markets by the widest margin since 1990.
  • Gold declined for the first time in five quarters, while the U.S. dollar index saw its best quarterly gain since Q1 2015.

 

Portfolio Changes: Strategic Adjustments

Looking ahead, we anticipate challenges in reducing inflation from 3% to 2% given potential tariffs and fewer Fed rate cuts, which could pressure the bond market.

Rowe Price and Raymond James shared their insights, and we’ve made adjustments to the mix of our portfolio constructions considering those recommendations.

  1. Fixed Income: To reduce duration by replacing the Loomis Sayles Core Bond Fund with the Baird Ultra Short Bond Fund, maintaining high credit quality while reducing risk amid potential rate volatility and inflation concerns.
  2. International Exposure: Given global uncertainties and tariff risks, we lightened our already modest international exposure by transitioning from Euro Pacific Growth and Vanguard International Value to the Vanguard Foreign Large Cap Blend Index Fund for greater stability.

Overall, optimism remains high, but we’re taking a balanced approach to manage risks and ensure stability across our portfolio construction for advisory accounts.

 

ABOUT THE INVESTMENT COMMITTEE: A DISCIPLINED APPROACH

Cornerstone’s Investment Committee is a key differentiator, setting the firm apart from others that often rely on broker/dealer models for portfolio construction. By taking a fully independent and systematic approach, Cornerstone ensures that client portfolios constructed with a high level of care, attention, and conviction. The committee’s focus includes:

  • Independent Portfolio Evaluation: Regularly reviewing and refining portfolio construction for advisory accounts and replacing investments that no longer meet the firm’s rigorous standards.
  • Proactive Market Planning: Preparing for market and economic events to navigate potential challenges effectively and seize opportunities when possible.
  • High-Conviction Strategies: Including only those funds that meet rigorous criteria and reflect the committee’s deep confidence.

This diligent process underscores Cornerstone’s commitment to delivering tailored, high-quality investment strategies and true value for clients.

Key Insights from Cornerstone’s Investment Committee Q1 2025

Disclaimers: Any opinions are those of Cornerstone Financial Solutions, Inc. and not necessarily those of Raymond James.  Every investor situation is unique, and prior to making any investment decisions, consult with your financial advisor.

Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. There is no guarantee that using an advisor will produce favorable investment results.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. It is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Original text CSP #706668. Added: Headings, As always, we prioritize proactive market strategies, evaluating economic trends and potential risks to navigate changing conditions effectively.

Protecting Your Legacy

Mar 18, 2024 | Estate Planning

Protecting Your Family and Your Legacy

When Pablo Picasso died in 1973 at the age of 91, he left behind five houses, cash, gold, bonds, and artwork. Because he didn’t have a will, it cost $30 million dollars and took six years for his assets to be divided among his heirs.

Unfortunately, Picasso wasn’t unusual in neglecting to plan for the inevitable. Many people don’t have a will, let alone an integrated plan designed to safeguard your estate, the people you love, and future generations.

AN ESTATE PLAN SERVES FOUR MAJOR PURPOSES:

  1. Directs who will receive your property when you die.
  2. Minimizes probate costs and any estate taxes that might be owed on that property.
  3. Provides for the care of minors – otherwise the state will become their guardians.
  4. Provides for your care if you are unable to provide for yourself. A proper plan ensures that you get to
    pick the caregivers, not the state.

People often find the first issue most critical – ensuring that your assets go to the people you choose.

    • Property you hold in joint tenancy with someone will go to that person, typically your spouse.
    • Beneficiaries named in your insurance policy, individual retirement accounts (IRA), or your qualified retirement
      plan at work will receive that property.
    • But, if you die intestate – without a will – your local probate court will decide who receives any property you
      hold solely in your name.

What if you want some of your property to go to friends, relatives, or children from a previous marriage?

For example, you want your friend Evelyn to get your teacup collection and son Jack to get your golf clubs. A will and letter of instructions can specify who receives what, so that your heirs aren’t left feuding over property.

Without a will and perhaps the use of a trust, your spouse could end up with everything. That may sound great, but your property could later end up in the hands of someone your spouse marries or their heirs, not in the hands of your friend or the children from your previous marriage.

What if you are widowed or divorced or want one child to receive the bulk of your property?

Perhaps you have a child who is disabled who you want to be sure is taken care of. Or maybe one child is a poor manager of money or is facing divorce. Without a will, many probate courts would distribute your assets equally to your heirs.

Without an estate plan, not only might the wrong heirs end up with your property, the federal and state government could end up with a good chunk of it. Whereas relatively simple trusts such as a bypass trust or an irrevocable life insurance trust can help shield the assets from taxes, or at least help pay the taxes with a minimum of cost.

Not convinced you have a large enough estate to worry about?

Think again. Many people think about the estate taxes when they think of an estate plan, and don’t draw one up because they don’t think they have an estate large enough to be taxed. But these days, with qualified retirement plans, IRAs, stock options, life insurance, and homes fluctuating in value, more and more families are finding themselves vulnerable to federal and state estate taxes. You can pass your property to your spouse tax-free, but that is only postponing the tax bite.
The government will collect when he or she dies.

We put off estate planning for any number of good reasons – we’re young and don’t think we need one yet, we don’t want to deal with something that means thinking about dying, we dread the thought of working with a lawyer, or we just don’t realize the impact of going without one. But it’s never too early to start a plan to help preserve, protect and transfer your assets to the people and organizations you care about.

NOT A CORNERSTONE CLIENT?

If you have questions about your financial plan please contact us today to schedule a complimentary, no obligation review with one of our advisors. Call 605.357.8553 or email cfsteam@mycfsgroup.com.

Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Sources:
9 Famous People Who Died Without a Will, https://www.legalzoom.com/articles/10-famous-people-who-died-without-a-will
Will(ful) Neglect: Survey Reveals Nearly 60% of Americans Unprepared for the Inevitable, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ful-neglect-survey-reveals-nearly-130400538

CSP #Insights Newsletter 415437, Insights Newsletter Issue 2 Feb 2024, Exp. 4.2.25

Why Working With a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional is Important

Jan 19, 2024 | Retirement Planning

WHY WORKING WITH A CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ PROFESSIONAL IS IMPORTANT

What is the difference between a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ (OR CFP®) professional and a financial advisor?

A CFP® professional is one of many types of financial advisors. A financial advisor must earn the right to call themselves a CFP® professional

Most people think all financial planners are “certified,” but the fact is: anyone who is licensed to sell these products and give advice can use the title “financial planner.” Upon learning this, I found myself feeling disheartened – especially since I am studying to earn the CFP® designation so that I can better serve you.

A CFP® professional holds an expertise in financial and investment planning and earned their marks from the Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, Inc.

Working alongside my fellow financial advisors, Gordon and Jill, I’ve seen how the CFP® designation sets them apart from other financial advisors in areas such as educational background, proven qualifying experience, and commitment to ethical standards. Being able to serve our clients in that way helped drive me to complete the requirements, coursework, and testing to earn my CFP® designation in 2024.

Are you working with a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, or looking to work with one? Here’s what you should know:

    • What is the difference between a CFP® professional and a financial advisor?
    • What percentage of financial advisors are CFP® professionals?
    • Is my financial advisor a CFP® professional?
    • How does a financial advisor become a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional?
    • What is the CFP Board’s financial planning process?
    • Is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® a fiduciary?
    • How can I learn more about the CFP® certification?

What is the difference between a CFP® professional and a financial advisor?

A CFP® professional is one of many types of financial advisors. A financial advisor must earn the right to call themselves a CFP® professional.

Here are a few considerations to why one might consider working with a CFP® professional.

Credentials

A financial advisor that earns the rights to use the CFP® marks shows an expertise towards financial planning, a level of professionalism, and distinguishes themselves for their clients. If working with a financial advisor with additional training in retirement planning is important to you, you may want to consider speaking with a CFP® professional.

Education

A CFP® professional is required to show a commitment towards continuing education. There is no requirement for a financial advisor to earn a college degree or receive advanced financial planning education, although all individuals licensed to sell securities or give advice must complete yearly continuing education as required by regulators and their firms. If working with a financial advisor dedicated to ongoing education is important to you, you may want to consider speaking with a CFP® professional.

Experience

While there are many financial advisors with years of experience, a financial advisor must accumulate approximately three years of work experience before using the CFP® marks.

Ethics

All financial advisors must adhere to a higher ethical standard and serve clients as a fiduciary throughout the advisory engagement. CFP Board’s Code of Ethics and Standards of Conduct reflects the commitment that all CFP® professionals make to high standards of competency and ethics. A copy can e found here: https://www.cfp.net/ethics/code-of-ethics-and-standards-of-conduct.

How can I learn more about the CFP® certification?

“CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification is the standard of excellence in financial planning. CFP® professionals meet rigorous education, training, and ethical standards, and are committed to serving their clients’ best interests today to prepare them for a more secure tomorrow.”

– The Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, Inc.

What percentage of financial advisors are CFP® professionals?

About 29% of financial advisors in the United States are CFP® professionals.

    • There are approximately 612,457 registered representatives eligible to sell securities in the United States, according to FINRA. ¹
    • There are 95,137 CFP® professionals in the United States according to the Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, Inc. ²

Is my financial advisor a CFP® professional?

You can determine if your financial advisor is a CFP® professional by going to the CFP Board’s verification page.

The wealth advisors at Cornerstone Financial have committed to hold the CFP® designation or be working to complete the rigorous certification process. The CFP® designation is considered the standard of excellence in financial planning. Gordon earned his CFP® in 2000, Jill earned her certification 2016, and Andrew earned the designation in 2024.

How does a financial advisor become a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional?

According to the CFP Board, it typically takes 18-24 months to become a CFP® professional. To become a CFP® professional, a financial advisor must meet requirements for education, exam, experience, and ethics.

Education: To satisfy the education requirement, a candidate must first earn a bachelor’s degree from an accredited college or university.

Then, a candidate must complete a CFP board education program consisting of classes focused on financial planning process, insurance, investment planning, income tax planning, retirement planning and employee benefits, estate planning, and financial plan development. Certain individuals may qualify for an accelerated education path.

Exam: To satisfy the exam requirement, a candidate must pass the CFP® exam consisting of a six-hour multiple choice exam.

Experience: A candidate must accumulate 6,000 hours of professional experience related to financial planning.

Ethics: A candidate must adhere to the high ethical and professional standards for the practice of financial planning found in the CFP Board’s Code of Ethics and Standards of Conduct. A Copy can be found here: https://www.cfp.net/ethics/code-of-ethics-and-standards-of-conduct.

What is the CFP Board’s financial planning process?

A CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional must follow the CFP Board’s seven-step financial planning process.

  1. Understanding the Client’s Personal and Financial Circumstances
  2. Identifying and Selecting Goals
  3. Analyzing the Client’s Current Course of Action and Potential Alternative Courses of Action
  4. Developing the Financial Planning Recommendation(s)
  5. Presenting the Financial Planning Recommendation(s)
  6. Implementing the Financial Planning Recommendation(s)
  7. Monitoring Progress and Updating

 ¹ FINRA Statistics as of 12/31/2021
² CFP Board Professional Demographics as of 01/01/2023
Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, Inc. Code of Ethics

 

Helping you build a financial plan to achieve what’s truly possible is what we do. Empowering you to pursue greater dreams is who we are. I’d love to visit with you about your dreams. Feel free to contact our office at 605-357-8553 or email me at cfsteam@mycfsgroup.com.

Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, CFP® (with plaque design) and CFP® (with flame design) in the U.S., which it awards to individuals who successfully complete CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Andrew Ulvestad and not necessarily those of Raymond James.

CSP #388978 Exp. 1.17.25

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Ulvestad Family Welcomes Baby Theo!

Nov 9, 2023 | #Cornerstone Community

"I know you are scared."

Thankful to work with the best professionals in the area and introduce baby Theo! 

Your unique aspirations are the heart of the Cornerstone Experience®, a personalized journey to craft a clear vision and help you tailor a strategic financial plan to dream, build, and lead your life. As your trusted partner we are dedicated to cultivating an extraordinary relationship with you. Transparency, trust, mutual respect, and open communication helps ensure you understand the value you’re receiving every step of the way.

As I approach my five-year work anniversary, my work family and our team’s dedication to delivering lasting value means more than ever. Our diverse and talented team continues to advance our comprehensive systems and processes, leaving nothing to chance as we help you navigate complex financial situations and pursue your financial goals. Our internal Investment Committee, backed by data and meticulous planning, helps ensure a high level of conviction in our strategies.

Cornerstone requires wealth advisors to hold the CFP® (Certified Financial Planner) designation or to be working to complete the rigorous certification process. The CFP® designation is considered the standard of excellence in financial planning. Gordon (Wollman) earned his CFP® certification in 2000, Jill (Mollner) in 2006, and I am currently working to complete the CFP® testing, a process that typically takes 18-24 months.

My wife, Tara, and I have reflected on a few of these principles since her 20-week ultrasound for our baby a few months ago. At that appointment we learned the baby was healthy, but Tara was battling a serious condition that could cause premature labor. Forgive me for not going into detail, the talk of anything medical makes me queasy!

The doctor, knowing how worried we were, put her hand on Tara’s and said “I know you are scared. I want you to know that I am one of the few doctors in the state who specializes in these cases.” That single sentence gave us confidence we were working with the right person.

On September 2nd, during Tara’s second extended stay in the hospital, the doctor told us waiting to deliver was simply too high-risk. So, despite Tara being only 32 weeks along, things were set in motion for us to have a baby the following day. We met with specialists from multiple departments and learned that Tara would be put to sleep to have the baby via C-section, immediately followed by a major surgery. I’m somewhat embarrassed to say I passed out during this discussion. Did I say medical talk makes me queasy? Hospital staff had to bring me water and a cold wet towel. Thankfully, my wife is stronger than I am!

We met again with the doctor from Tara’s ultrasound. She told us they’d lined up the very best people in each department and assured us we’d be getting the best care possible. Everything would be focused on Tara since no other major surgeries were planned.

At 6:30am the next morning I walked with Tara to the testing required before surgery. When she and I hugged goodbye, we didn’t know if we’d ever see each other again. I wasn’t allowed in the operating room because of the number of people involved in the surgery, so staff walked me to a waiting room and explained I’d get updates via text message. I didn’t know what to expect over the next couple of hours.

At 7:32am I got the first text message – the operation had begun. At that point, I had already covered a mile, anxiously pacing the waiting room. Being early Sunday morning, it was just me and a staff member working at a computer.

About 5 minutes later I received another text that the operation was going well. Then, no news for over an hour. What had happened? I hadn’t asked what text updates I would get if things didn’t go well! The staff member at the computer hadn’t heard anything either and went to find someone in the operating room. They came back to announce we had a healthy baby boy at 7:46am (September 3rd). I was able to see a sleeping Baby Theo in the NICU. Wow, I was one proud dad! It was another six hours before I was finally able to talk with Tara, who also ended up doing amazing. 

Theo and Tara are both doing awesome. All of your thoughts and prayers are so appreciated!

In sharing the full story I’m being a little more vulnerable than normal. But, I felt it was important. If you’ve seen my commercial online or on TV, I talk about how important it is to work with a professional in all aspects of life, including financial planning. I’m thankful that my family and I were able to work with the best professionals in the area when it came to Theo’s birth and Tara’s surgery.

The awards and education I mentioned earlier don’t define the Cornerstone Team of professionals, but I’m thankful to be part of a company that expects each team member to continue to grow in knowledge and seek excellence. Just like the doctors who helped us at the hospital, we too can sit down with you, put our hand on yours and say “We’ve done this before. And we are one of the experts in this subject matter.” Our desire is to take care of you the best we possibly can.

At the hospital, I was amazed how multiple departments and specialists worked together to take care of us and our baby. On the day of the surgery, we were comforted when our doctor said, “You are our number one priority. Each department, from anesthesiologists to nurses, urologists to the NICU staff and more, will all be focused on you.” The same is true at Cornerstone. We have a big team and our number one priority is YOU. If your primary advisor is out like I have been, another advisor is there
to help and give the same guidance and advice.

We meet with you during regularly scheduled review appointments, host events, provide weekly updates via email, and check-in regularly through phone calls. But, between updates you may be a little like me in that waiting room – concerned and pacing anxiously. The market can make us all feel a little anxious sometimes. In the waiting room I trusted and relied on the doctors in the operating room. I trusted their expertise and desire to do what was best for my family.

We at Cornerstone don’t take YOUR trust for granted. I hope you understand how much we care and want to do what is best for you. Thank you for your continued trust.

NOT A CORNERSTONE CLIENT?

Call 605.357.8553 or email cfsteam@mycfsgroup.com today to schedule a complimentary, no-obligation appointment with one of our wealth advisors.

Any opinions are those of Andrew Ulvestad and not necessarily those of Raymond James. This content is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice, an endorsement, or recommendations for any individual. Raymond James Financial Advisors do not render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Holding stocks for the long-term does not insure a profitable outcome. Investing in stocks always involves risk, including the possibility of losing one’s entire investment. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. To determine what is appropriate for you, consult a qualified professional. CSP #632702 Exp. 10.24.29

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