When global events create uncertainty, it is natural to wonder what it might mean for your financial future.
Moments like these are exactly why a thoughtful plan exists in the first place — to provide stability when headlines feel unstable.
To Our Clients: Please know that your situation, your strategy, and the path toward what matters most in your life continue to be monitored carefully. While markets may react in the short term, your long-term direction remains grounded in disciplined planning and intentional decisions.
With that reassurance in mind, here is some perspective on what has happened and what it could mean moving forward.
Understanding the Recent Events
On Saturday, February 28, the United States and Israel launched joint airstrikes on Iran. As part of this operation, Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed. As expected, this development has created increased volatility in financial markets — particularly in oil.
Significant time has been devoted to analyzing the situation and understanding how it could affect clients and portfolios. The primary objective remains unchanged: helping families stay on track toward their goals with clarity and confidence.
Before discussing markets, it is also important to acknowledge the human side of events like these. Thoughts remain with members of the armed forces and innocent civilians impacted by conflict. While this message focuses on economic implications, the human impact always matters most.
How Markets Typically Respond to Geopolitical Conflict
No one can predict the future with certainty. However, history provides helpful patterns.
Markets often react to geopolitical crises in fairly consistent ways.
Initially, more risk-averse investors tend to sell quickly. Conflict disrupts production and trade, and disruption creates uncertainty — the primary driver of volatility.
After that, one of two paths usually unfolds:
Scenario 1: Conflict resolves relatively quickly.
Markets often rebound after the initial decline as investors move back in or take advantage of lower prices.
Scenario 2: Conflict continues.
Investors gradually absorb the news and begin treating the situation as just one factor among many influencing markets.
Signs of this adjustment may already be visible. On Monday, March 2, major indices fell early in the day but recovered losses by the afternoon.¹ Sometimes this digestion process takes days. Other times, weeks or months. In both cases, volatility eventually settles.
Because of this pattern, geopolitical events frequently have shorter-term market effects than many expect.
For example:
- During the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 — one of the most dangerous periods in modern history — the Dow fell only 1.2% and finished the year up 10%.²
- When Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, the Dow declined more than 18% but recovered completely within a few months.³
- When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, energy prices surged sharply, but within a year oil markets had largely absorbed the impact.⁴
History never guarantees outcomes, but it does offer perspective.
Why This Situation Still Deserves Attention
While markets often recover from geopolitical shocks, this conflict is larger in scale than many recent events.
Iranian counterattacks have already reached nearby countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. Because of this, it is impossible to predict how long the conflict may last or whether it could widen. Investors may be processing an ongoing stream of changing information rather than a single event.
The biggest uncertainty currently centers on oil.
A few important facts help explain why:
- Iran produces approximately 4.5% of the world’s oil and shares the largest natural gas reserves globally.⁵
- Iran controls the northern side of the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes. Roughly 20.9 million barrels of oil pass through daily, about 20% of global consumption.⁶
- Energy facilities in nearby countries have already been struck, forcing some production suspensions. Several major shipping companies have paused operations in the region.
At this time, the Strait of Hormuz is not completely closed, and any closure would likely be temporary. However, even temporary disruptions can cause oil prices to rise.
Higher energy costs can influence:
- Shipping and travel expenses
- Food prices
- Supply chains
- Inflation
- Interest rates
- Corporate earnings
All of which can create short-term pressure on markets.
The key takeaway: geopolitical conflicts rarely cause lasting market damage, but short-term discomfort is possible.
The Most Important Principle During Uncertain Times
Conflict creates change.
Change creates uncertainty.
Uncertainty often triggers overreaction.
Many investors lose ground during volatile periods not because of markets themselves, but because long-term decisions become driven by short-term emotions.
The situation in the Middle East may evolve daily — even hourly. Headlines that appear alarming in the morning may change by afternoon. Reacting emotionally to rapidly changing information rarely improves outcomes.
Historically, maintaining a disciplined strategy has been far more effective than making sudden decisions during uncertainty.
Ongoing Analysis and Commitment
Continued evaluation of new information remains a priority. If circumstances change in a way that requires action — whether to protect or to take advantage of opportunities — adjustments will be made thoughtfully and communicated promptly.
Questions, concerns, or worries are always welcome. Emotions during uncertain times are natural and valid. The goal is simply to make decisions with clarity rather than reaction.
Serving families through changing markets and uncertain environments is a responsibility taken very seriously. The Cornerstone philosophy has always centered on helping people:
Dream boldly.
Build intentionally.
Lead confidently.
That commitment remains unchanged.
If a conversation would be helpful at any point, please reach out.
- “S&P500 turns positive in dramatic comeback,” CNBC, cnbc.com/2026/03/01/stock-market-today-live-update.html
- “HowMarkets Respond to Geopolitical Crises,” A Wealth of Common Sense, com/2017/06/how-markets-respond-to-geopolitical-crises/
- “StockMarket History: More Ups Than Downs,” Forbes, September 27, www.forbes.com/sites/johndobosz/2017/09/20/stock-market-history-more-ups-than-downs/?sh=71324c093951
- “Oilmarket has fully absorbed impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” Reuters, reuters.com/business/energy/oil-market-has-fully-absorbed-impact-russias-invasion-ukraine-kemp-2023-03-09/
- “Iran’smain oil and gas production and infrastructure,” Reuters, reuters.com/world/middle-east/an-overview-irans-energy-industry-
- infrastructure-2026-02-28/
- “TheStrait of Hormuz crisis explained,” CNBC, cnbc.com/2026/03/02/strait-of-hormuz-crisis-us-iran-israel-war-shipping-trade-oil.html
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