Understanding the 2025 U.S. Government Shutdown

Oct 7, 2025 | Investing

On Wednesday, October 1, Americans woke up to the news that their government had shut down.1 It is the first such shutdown since 2018, although there have been plenty of near-misses in recent years. In this case, both parties rejected last-minute proposals and counterproposals to fund the government, with the major sticking point being healthcare.

 

What exactly does this mean?

As you know, whenever Congress authorizes a law, the government must spend money to enact it. Sometimes, the authorization doesn’t contain provisions to fund the law so a second piece of legislation is required, known as an appropriations bill. This is where Congress separately appropriates money specifically for the new law.

These appropriations must be renewed, usually by October 1 each year, for the law to remain funded. This is what’s known as discretionary spending, because Congress decides upon its own discretion whether to continue funding the law. Currently, there are twelve appropriations bills that Congress must pass every year. These bills cover defense spending, national parks, food safety, passport applications, airports, and much more. 2

However, as political partisanship has grown so extreme in recent years, it’s become nearly impossible to pass these bills in a timely manner. Instead, Congress usually attempts to package each piece of legislation into a single omnibus bill. And when that doesn’t work, lawmakers turn to something called a continuing resolution (C.R.), which is a temporary spending bill that essentially keeps all government agencies operating at their existing funding levels.

As of this writing, Congress has not been able to agree on any of these options. (Technically, the House did pass a continuing resolution, but it failed in the Senate.) There are many points of contention, but the biggest has to do with healthcare. Specifically, the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits. These credits, designed to help lower income people afford coverage, were first put in place by the Affordable Care Act. They were then expanded by legislation passed during the pandemic. But those credits expire at the end of 2025, meaning that millions of Americans who relied on them to afford coverage may suddenly be without healthcare. That, in turn, may cause premiums to rise for nearly everybody else. Certain people with lower incomes, for example, may see their costs go up by 75% or more.2

Democrats refused to vote for any plan that didn’t extend these credits. Their reasoning is that if the issue is not taken care of now, millions may lose coverage or have to pay more than they can afford. Republicans, on the other hand, contend these credits add to the deficit, were never designed to be permanent, and should be dealt with separately. Both sides have an argument — it’s simply a matter of differing priorities. But, both see this as an opportunity to cast blame on the other and score political points.

 

What happens now?

Because of this gridlock, many aspects of the government that fall under the umbrella of discretionary spending can no longer be paid for. As a result, agencies must shut down all “nonessential services” — although what that means can vary dramatically depending on the agency or service in question. Some services, which are simply too vital to ever stop operating, will continue, although they may not work as fast or efficiently as normal. Think law enforcement. Forest service. Firefighting. Air traffic control. (This may be the single biggest one, so more on this in a minute.) Much of the National Weather Service. You get the idea. However, many people who do these jobs will not get paid, or will be paid much less, until Congress acts.

Other agencies will be hit even harder. Over 75% of employees in the Labor, Commerce, and Education departments have been furloughed. The Environmental Protection Agency, has sent a whopping 89% of its employees home.3 Some agencies, like the IRS, will be able to hold out for longer due to special contingency plans, but those often cover only a week or so before they, too, will be forced to send workers home.

Other government operations, meanwhile, fall under the umbrella of mandatory spending. These are for certain laws and programs that are not required to be renewed annually. (Think Social Security benefits, Medicare, and Medicaid.) These programs will continue operating during a shutdown. Unfortunately, many employees who oversee these programs will be sent home. As a result, there may be delays in helping citizens who need to interact with these services in some way.

The shutdown will continue until Congress either authorizes a new C.R. or begins passing individual appropriation bills. It’s impossible to know exactly how long this will take, but it’s worth noting that shutdowns usually don’t last very long. Most, in fact, only go on for a day or two. But sometimes, shutdowns can drag on for weeks. In 2013, for example, we experienced a 16-day shutdown.4 And, from December 2018 through January 2019, the government shut down for 35 days.4

 

How might it affect the markets?

Shutdowns can cause major disruptions to important services, and they’re especially hard on the people who actually keep our country running. (For this reason, let’s all spare a thought for those government employees who get furloughed during the holidays.) That said, they typically do not have a major impact on the overall economy, usually because they don’t last very long. Shutdowns don’t tend to directly affect the markets, either.

Data suggests the S&P 500 has fallen “an average of 0.4% in the week before a shutdown and gained a total of 0.1% over the length of all shutdowns since 1976.”5 And there has historically been no lasting damage, either, with the S&P 500 rising “about 12% in the 12 months following [a shutdown].”6 Not surprising, considering the markets react to many factors. Important as it is, a shutdown is only one of them. Quite frankly, it’s rare for just one event to have a lasting impact on stocks, even if media headlines suggest otherwise.

That said, shutdowns shouldn’t be taken lightly, either. If prolonged, the effects begin to compound. For example, the last full shutdown, in 2018, lasted for thirty-four days. Towards the end, air traffic controllers, who had been required to work without pay, began calling in sick in droves, resulting in major travel delays and impacts to trade. And the current shutdown comes during a time when economic uncertainty is already on the rise. Inflation has subtly but gradually ticked up this year, while the labor market has slowed down. (As of August, the unemployment rate was up to 4.3%, the highest since 2017 other than during the worst pandemic months of 2020.)7

Approximately 750,000 federal workers could be furloughed as a result of this shutdown, but in an ironic twist, we may not have another jobs report for some time, as the agency responsible for tracking that data is one of those most affected by the shutdown.1

 

Takeaway

For us as investors, there’s no reason to panic, and certainly no reason to make a major shift to our investment strategy. Again, history shows most shutdowns to be limited in duration and modest in impact. At the same time, it’s important we don’t ignore what’s going on either, as there’s simply no telling how long this shutdown will last or how deep it will run. My advice is to enjoy the changing of the season and focus more on preparing for the holidays than on what’s going on in Washington. But in the meantime, the Cornerstone Team will keep a very close eye on your behalf!

 

As always, please let us know if you have any questions or concerns.

Sources:
1“US government shutdown begins as partisan division rules Washington,” Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-government-beginsshut-down-most-operations-after-congress-fails-advance-2025-10-01/

2 “How much and why ACA Marketplace premiums are going up in 2026,” Peterson-KFF Health Systems Tracker, https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/how-much-and-why-aca-marketplace-premiums-are-going-up-in-2026

3 “How the Shutdown Is Affecting Federal Services and Workers,” The NY Times,
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/09/30/us/politics/government-shutdown-furloughs.html

4 “How long do government shutdowns last?” NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/longest-government-shutdown-us-historypresident-administration-rcna234766

5 “Analysis: Potential US government shutdown could dent investor confidence,” Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/potential-usgovernment-shutdown-could-dent-investor-confidence-2023-09-08/

6 “What would a government shutdown mean for markets and the economy?” NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/business/businessnews/government-shutdown-markets-economy-impact-rcna234643

7 “The Employment Situation — August 2025,” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 5, 2025. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including asset allocation and diversification. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. does not provide advice on tax or legal issues. These matters should be discussed with the appropriate professional.

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website’s users and/or members. The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Raymond James.

Market Volatility, Tariffs, and Your Financial Strategy

Apr 8, 2025 | Investing

A Message from Your Cornerstone Financial Solutions Advisory Team

At Cornerstone, we believe Clear is Kind. To us, that means open, honest, and timely communication—especially when things feel uncertain. In times of stress, maintaining calm poise and clear thinking is essential—not just for investment decisions, but for well-being.

 

Understanding Recent Market Volatility

 

Market Volatility and What’s Driving It 

Over the past several days and weeks, we’ve all felt the weight of market volatility. Whether you’re enjoying retirement, preparing for it, or just beginning your financial journey, these moments can stir up concern. That’s why we’re reaching out—to keep you informed, grounded, and confident, even amid the noise.

Market fluctuations have intensified in recent weeks, driven largely by global trade tensions. A key factor is the recent tariff overhaul initiated by President Trump. This effort aims to reshape global trade, revive U.S. manufacturing, and address long-standing imbalances.

These changes come with global ripple effects. Nations across the world—from China to Namibia—are implementing retaliatory tariffs, increasing uncertainty and complicating global economic outlooks.

 

Tariff Increases at a Glance

  • The average effective U.S. tariff may jump to 20–25%, up from 3%in 2024.
  • The full impact is still unfolding, with potential for negotiation or de-escalation.
  • Short-term volatility is likely to continue.

 

Historical Context: Uncertainty Isn’t New 

Many of you remember navigating other uncertain times—9/11, the Brexit vote, or the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Despite the fear and uncertainty, in each case markets found their footing and recovered—often sooner than expected.

 

Bear and Bull Market Patterns Since 1980

  • Bear markets: Average decline of 30%, lasting about 282 days
  • Bull markets: Average gain of 96%, lasting over 1,000 days

 

Why Timing the Market Doesn’t Work

10 of the best 20 trading days happened in years with overall losses

11 of the worst trading days occurred in years with positive returns

This data shows that staying invested through market turbulence is one of the most effective long-term wealth strategies. And that’s why our focus remains on the big picture. The last thing we want to do is sell your hard-earned lifetime savings at a discount because of short-term fear. We remain firmly committed to helping you navigate through the noise with confidence and clarity.

A Personal Note from Andrew: The Timeout That Wasn’t

I just got back home last night from a weekend in Omaha, Nebraska, where I was coaching my 8th grade boys’ basketball team.

We started strong—winning our first two games—and in our third game Saturday night, we had a solid 12-point lead with just five minutes left. But then, as sports so often mirrors life, things began to unravel. Slowly, the momentum shifted.

With under 30 seconds remaining, we were clinging to a 2-point lead. I was holding on to my last timeout. Then it happened—we got trapped near the sideline. I was yelling—screaming—for a timeout. But the officials didn’t hear me. We turned the ball over. Five seconds left. The other team launched a deep shot. It went in. Game over. We lost by one.

Andrew Ulvestad, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL®, AAMS®
Andrew Ulvestad

CFP®, AAMS®

Wealth Advisor, RJFS

 

All night, I replayed it in my head. Should I have called timeout earlier? Subbed differently? But it wasn’t just one play that cost us the game—it was a series of plays—good and bad—over the entire course.

That’s exactly how the market feels right now. Volatile. Frustrating. Emotional. It’s easy to look at one bad day or week and think we should’ve done something differently. But markets, like games, aren’t won or lost in a single moment. They’re shaped by disciplined, consistent decisions over time.

Here’s what’s worth remembering:

  • Since 1980, markets have averaged a 10% drop every year,with an average intra-year decline of 13–14%.
  • Yet the S&P 500 has delivered around 10% average annual return.

That’s not because there weren’t bad plays—it’s because investors stayed in the game.

So, if you’re feeling anxious, please know: we are here—coaching from the sidelines with a long-term game plan in mind. We can’t control every bounce of the ball, but we can control how we respond.

Recenter, Refocus, and Realign Your Financial Plan

It’s been a rough stretch lately—one of those times where uncertainty creeps in and the future feels more foggy than clear. Just like in Andrew’s basketball game, momentum shifted, and things started to spiral.

It’s easy in moments like that to feel overwhelmed—to lose focus or doubt the plan we set in motion. We know many of you have felt that in your financial lives, too.

But maybe that’s the signal we need—not to panic, but to pause. Let’s call that last timeout.
Let’s:

  • Step back: Reflect on your overall financial goals
  • Clear your head: Don’t let fear dictate decisions
  • Revisit your plan: Make adjustments, not rash moves

There’s still time left on the clock, and staying disciplined, focused, and intentional can make all the difference.

 

We’re Here to Guide You 

Whether you want to realign your investment strategy, revisit your goals, or simply talk about why you started your financial journey, let’s continue to make smart, steady moves together. Sincerely,

Your Cornerstone Financial Solutions Advisory Team

Gordon Wollman, MS-Financial Planning, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL® Founder & CEO, CFS Wealth Advisor, RJFS
Gordon Wollman 

MS-Financial Planning, CFP®, ChFC, CMFC®, CRPS®, AWMA®, AAMS®, ChFEBC℠
Founder & CEO, CFS
Wealth Advisor, RJFS

 

 

Jill Mollner, MBA, CFP®
Jill Mollner  

MBA, CFP®

Andrew Ulvestad, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL®, AAMS®
Andrew Ulvestad

Wealth Advisor
CFP®, AAMS®

Jory Flanery, Associate Advisor
Jory Flanery

Associate Advisor

Any opinions are those of Cornerstone Financial solutions and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. CSP #767134 Exp. 4.7.26.

The Tariff-Related Questions Investors Should Be Asking

Mar 14, 2025 | Investing

Tariffs. Market swings. Uncertainty. These topics have dominated the news, leading many to ask “How does this affect my investments?” 

On March 4, a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports went into effect. At the same time, an additional 10% tariff to Chinese goods. As expected, all three countries have retaliated with their own tariffs on U.S. goods.

The markets didn’t react well. The Dow plunged over 600 points that day, and the NASDAQ crept closer to correction territory. Understandably, fear has investors asking questions:

  • Are the markets going into a correction?
  • Will the economy go into a recession?
  • Should I change my allocation?
  • Is it time to get out and move everything to cash?

At Cornerstone, we believe the more important question is: How do I stay focused on my long-term goals despite short-term uncertainty?

To be clear, tariffs – especially at these levels – are not a small thing. While they can be used to generate revenue or bring countries to the negotiating table, they can also cut into corporate profits. Companies sometimes pass these costs to consumers in the form of higher prices. In other words, tariffs can be inflationary, at a time when we are still dealing with higher-than normal inflation.

What Tariffs Mean for Investors

We can make reasonable assumptions and educated guesses, but nobody knows for sure how long these tariffs will last or their ultimate effect on the economy. That uncertainty fuels market volatility and can trigger emotional decision-making.

It’s natural to want to take action and many investors want to do something. Just like packing an umbrella when it looks like rain or leaving early to avoid traffic, people want to sidestep pain caused by market volatility. Some investors may consider stepping out of the markets altogether, thinking they’ll get back in later when things are calm. Like skipping the freeway and taking service streets to avoid a traffic jam.

 

Why Staying the Course Matters

There’s a major problem with applying these metaphors to investing – they are short-term solutions for short-term problems. Investing is a long-term journey, and one of the biggest mistakes is making a short-term decision that has long-term consequences.

It’s true in life as well. It’s why we pack an umbrella when it looks like rain, but we don’t move to another state. Or why we may avoid driving when there’s heavy traffic, but we don’t sell our car.

 

A Better Approach: Thinking Like a Gardener

Investing is more like tending a garden. You wouldn’t move plants into pots because you hear distant thunder and know it might hail. You don’t overwater just because you feel the need to constantly do something. You plant in good soil, water as needed, and trust the process. While the zucchini plants may do better than the peppers, or the rosemary plant might fail, you patiently give the seeds all the time they need to sprout. The same applies to investing—staying disciplined through market cycles is what leads to long-term success.

Volatility, whatever the cause, is a short-term problem. Just as you want your garden to bear fruit for years, not months, don’t make a short-term investment move that could harm your long-term plan.

As Peter Lynch, one of the most successful investors of all time, once said:
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than in corrections themselves.”

 

A Long-Term Perspective Wins

Tariffs are an important story, one that may be with us for a long time. And market volatility can be painful. But that shouldn’t dictate your investment approach. Volatility can also be an opportunity—to practice patience, discipline, and consistency.

Instead of reacting to the latest headlines, consider these key questions:

  1. If I get out of the market now, how will I know when it’s time to get back in?
  2. Would I rather ride out a short-term correction or risk missing a long-term rebound?
  3. Do I truly want to sell investments I believe in, knowing I may need to repurchase them at a higher price later?

As always, we’ll continue monitoring the markets and keeping you informed. Just remember:

We cannot do anything about tariffs, or how the markets react to them. We can control how we respond. We can be gardeners.

Any opinions are those of Cornerstone Financial Solutions Inc. and not necessarily those of Raymond James. All opinions are of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. It is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including asset allocation and diversification. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Material sourced by Bill Good Marketing, an independent third party.

How New Trade Tariffs Could Affect Your Investments

Mar 5, 2025 | Investing

 

Trade Tariffs and Market Uncertainty

Recent tariff policies have the potential to reshape global trade, with the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and China adjusting their import taxes in response to ongoing negotiations. To be clear, this situation has been changing rapidly and will likely continue to do so.  It’s probable that things will have changed by the time you read this.

If you remember President Trump’s first term in office, you likely recall the “trade war” between the U.S. and China.  (While media coverage on this decreased after COVID, it’s worth noting that President Biden continued and increased many of the same tariffs. In other words, this is a fire that’s been raging for a while.)  But to try and get a handle on what’s going on, let’s do a Q&A on tariffs.  We’ll start with:

 

What Are Tariffs, and Why Do They Matter?

A tariff is essentially a tax on imported goods and services.  Tariffs can be levied on almost anything: metals, food, appliances, lumber, you name it.  Whenever a U.S. business buys goods from a foreign country with a tariff on it, they will pay that tax along with the cost of the product itself.  So, when tariffs rise, it can have implications for both businesses and consumers.  And when countries slap tariffs on our products, it affects U.S. companies that export goods abroad. While the goal is often to protect domestic industries and encourage local production, tariffs can potentially increase consumer prices and disrupt international trade relationships.

 

The Argument for Tariffs

Traditionally, tariffs have served two main purposes:

  • Generating Revenue:

Before the federal income tax was established in 1913, tariffs were a primary source of government funding.

  • Protecting Domestic Industries

When you tax imports of specific goods, businesses may be more likely to buy from domestic producers instead. 

While revenue and protectionism are the traditional arguments for tariffs, President Trump’s reasons have been more varied. In his first term, his stated objective was to decrease the trade deficit between the US and other countries, primarily China. On the campaign trail, Trump talked about tariffs as a way to ensure more products would be made in America. And the White House has discussed securing the border and halting the flow of fentanyl as an objective.

 

Tariffs as a Negotiation Tool

The “reason” behind tariffs may seem academic, but it’s actually important – because it sets the conditions required for reducing tariffs in favor of free trade. For example, it’s conceivable that if the US, Canada, and Mexico were to set new agreements on border security, tariffs will be lowered, and the trade war would end.  The early signs for this are good. Recent agreements have linked tariff suspensions to border security measures, suggesting that economic pressure is being used to influence diplomatic negotiations. 

 

The Risks of Prolonged Tariffs

 

Potential for Increased Inflation

If companies must pay more for the goods they need, they will often pass those costs onto consumers.  That’s especially important during a time of higher-than-normal inflation. 

 

Supply Chain Disruptions

Businesses could turn to U.S.-based suppliers for many of these items, but there are issues.  Domestic industries can’t just replicate the volume of foreign trade overnight.  Furthermore, cutting down on the number of suppliers can snarl supply chains — the very problem that led to higher inflation in the first place.  It’s worth noting that inflation did not rise dramatically during President Trump’s first term…but we should also note that these tariffs are much more extensive than last time.     

 

Retaliatory Trade Wars

While tariffs can benefit certain domestic industries, a trade war can end up hurting as many industries as it helps. Other countries may impose tariffs on American products, making it harder for U.S. businesses to compete in international markets. Canada, for example, has announced tariffs on American steel, aluminum, food, and consumer goods.

 

The final argument against tariffs is that they don’t always work as intended.  For example, while the trade deficit between the U.S. and China narrowed during President Trump’s first term, the overall trade deficit actually widened by a significant margin.  More notably, when the U.S. raised tariffs on a large scale in 1930, the trade war that resulted ended up worsening the Great Depression — one reason the U.S. moved away from tariffs after World War II.        

 

Impact of Tariffs on the Stock Market

Typically, tariffs don’t impact the stock market directly.  However, they can potentially cause various indirect effects.  Again, the single most important thing to keep an eye on is probably inflation.  As you know, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 40-year highs to bring down consumer prices.  After inflation fell below 3% last fall, the Federal Reserve began cutting rates in response.  However, the Fed has signaled they only plan to cut rates twice in 2025.  Any significant uptick in inflation will only slow the pace of future cuts — or even cause rates to rise again. 

The good news is that the markets are driven by many factors, and tariffs are just one.  During President Trump’s first term, the trade war between the U.S. and China had a very small effect on the markets, occasionally injecting short-term volatility but having little sustained effect on performance.  And there are still many good reasons to feel confident in the stock market.  The economy is coming off a strong year.  Interest rates are lower.  Some sectors, especially in tech, are experiencing tremendous momentum.  For these reasons, we don’t intend to make major investment decisions based on tariffs alone. 

 

Investor Sentiment

Markets thrive on predictability. Prolonged trade disputes can lead to short-term sell-offs as investors seek stability.

While tariffs alone may not cause a major market downturn, their indirect effects—such as inflation and supply chain challenges—can influence broader market trends.

 

What’s Next?

There are still so many things we don’t know. And, at this point, the long-term impact of these tariffs remains uncertain. If negotiations between the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and China progress, some tariffs could be lifted. That would certainly be a positive result for everyone!  If tensions escalate, we could see prolonged economic effects.

At Cornerstone Financial Solutions, we continue to monitor these developments closely. While short-term market fluctuations are possible, we remain focused on long-term investment strategies. If you have questions or concerns about how these changes may affect your portfolio, feel free to reach out to us.

Any opinions are those of Cornerstone Financial Solutions, Inc. and not necessarily those of Raymond James. All opinions are as of 3/3/25 and are subject to change without notice. The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including asset allocation and diversification. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Adapted from material prepared by Bill Good Marketing, an independent third-party.

 

White House Tariff Announcement,” The White House, https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/

Canada’s response to U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods,” Government of Canada, https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/programs/international-trade-finance-policy/canadas-response-us-tariffs.html

Trump pauses tariffs on Mexico and Canada, but not China,” Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-americans-may-feel-pain-trade-war-with-mexico-canada-china-2025-02-03/

China retaliates with additional tariffs of up to 15% on select U.S. imports,” CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/04/china-levies-tariffs-on-select-us-imports-starting-feb-10.html

12-month percentage change, Consumer Price Index,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm

Here’s what will get more expensive from tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China,” CNN Business, https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/01/economy/trump-tariffs-mexico-canada-china-increased-costs/index.html

America’s trade gap soared, final figures show,” Politico, https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/05/2020-trade-figures-trump-failure-deficit-466116

Fed cuts key interest rate but signals elevated inflation is likely to persist,” https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-cut-december-2024-much-economy-rcna184586

Key Insights from Cornerstone’s Investment Committee Q1 2025

Feb 13, 2025 | Investing

Economic Outlook: Optimism with Cautious Considerations

We recently held our internal Cornerstone Investment Committee meeting to discuss various topics as we approach 2025. As always, we prioritize proactive market strategies, evaluating economic trends and potential risks to navigate changing conditions effectively.

There’s a sense of optimism around U.S. policy, the economy, earnings growth, consumer confidence, and business confidence. The best-case scenario includes resilient consumer spending driven by healthy job growth, fiscal stimulus from programs like the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act, and continued investment in transformative sectors like artificial intelligence. However, we also considered a worst-case scenario: a potential recession triggered by the Federal Reserve over-tightening, leading to a collapse in consumer and business spending.

 

Interest Rate Scenarios: What Lies Ahead?

We discussed how economic growth could support robust job creation while disinflation might continue, fueled by falling energy prices, retail discounts, a strengthening dollar, and potentially declining shelter costs. However, tariffs remain a wildcard, with inflationary implications that could disrupt this outlook.

Two possible interest rate scenarios were explored:

  1. Rates declining due to moderating growth, decelerating inflation, and Fed easing.
  2. Rates rising due to tariff-driven inflation, stronger-than-expected growth, or increased government spending.

 

Mid-cap Stocks, Key Sectors, and Global Positioning

Regarding equities, mid-cap stocks appear well-positioned as they balance exposure to U.S. economic strength while being somewhat insulated from tariff risks. Small caps may struggle if the Fed refrains from aggressive rate cuts next year. We also identified technology, healthcare, and industrials as key sectors to watch, given their potential for strong earnings growth. The U.S. is likely to remain the strongest performer globally, thanks to superior economic growth, dynamic corporate leadership, and exposure to preferred sectors.

 

Political and Policy Impacts on Markets

The conversation then shifted to political developments. President Trump’s return to office brings the potential for sweeping tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, with the Senate playing a pivotal role in confirming his key appointments.

The debt limit, which requires bipartisan support, is likely to become a priority in the first half of 2025. Deregulation efforts by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could enhance cybersecurity and overall government efficiency.

Additionally, we discussed the potential extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, with scenarios ranging from a 4-5 year extension costing $2 trillion to a 10-year proposal estimated at $4.6 trillion. New provisions, such as eliminating taxes on tips and overtime, are likely to benefit lower-income households.

We touched on commodity markets, including volatility in oil and the impact of tariffs on critical resources like copper, lithium, and uranium. Concerns around inflation and interest rates persist, particularly for longer maturities in fixed income if inflation remains elevated.

Key Insights from Cornerstone’s Investment Committee Q1 2025

Global Market Trends and International Exposure

From a global perspective, we see uncertainty across markets in China, the Eurozone, emerging markets, Japan, and the UK. As a result, we’re maintaining a cautious stance on international equities, reducing exposure to funds like Euro Pacific Growth and Vanguard International Value in favor of a Vanguard Foreign Large Cap Blend Index Fund to manage volatility and focus on stability.

During our Q4 2024 review, we noted several key developments:

  • The Federal Reserve cut rates, but headline inflation accelerated for two consecutive months.
  • President Trump won the presidential election, with Republicans sweeping both the House and Senate.
  • The Fed’s balance sheet dropped below $7 trillion, the lowest since May 2020.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield rose 87 basis points, reaching a seven-month high.
  • The S&P 500 posted its fifth consecutive quarterly gain, ending the year with over 25% total returns for the second straight year.
  • European equities underperformed global markets by the widest margin since 1990.
  • Gold declined for the first time in five quarters, while the U.S. dollar index saw its best quarterly gain since Q1 2015.

 

Portfolio Changes: Strategic Adjustments

Looking ahead, we anticipate challenges in reducing inflation from 3% to 2% given potential tariffs and fewer Fed rate cuts, which could pressure the bond market.

Rowe Price and Raymond James shared their insights, and we’ve made adjustments to the mix of our portfolio constructions considering those recommendations.

  1. Fixed Income: To reduce duration by replacing the Loomis Sayles Core Bond Fund with the Baird Ultra Short Bond Fund, maintaining high credit quality while reducing risk amid potential rate volatility and inflation concerns.
  2. International Exposure: Given global uncertainties and tariff risks, we lightened our already modest international exposure by transitioning from Euro Pacific Growth and Vanguard International Value to the Vanguard Foreign Large Cap Blend Index Fund for greater stability.

Overall, optimism remains high, but we’re taking a balanced approach to manage risks and ensure stability across our portfolio construction for advisory accounts.

 

ABOUT THE INVESTMENT COMMITTEE: A DISCIPLINED APPROACH

Cornerstone’s Investment Committee is a key differentiator, setting the firm apart from others that often rely on broker/dealer models for portfolio construction. By taking a fully independent and systematic approach, Cornerstone ensures that client portfolios constructed with a high level of care, attention, and conviction. The committee’s focus includes:

  • Independent Portfolio Evaluation: Regularly reviewing and refining portfolio construction for advisory accounts and replacing investments that no longer meet the firm’s rigorous standards.
  • Proactive Market Planning: Preparing for market and economic events to navigate potential challenges effectively and seize opportunities when possible.
  • High-Conviction Strategies: Including only those funds that meet rigorous criteria and reflect the committee’s deep confidence.

This diligent process underscores Cornerstone’s commitment to delivering tailored, high-quality investment strategies and true value for clients.

Key Insights from Cornerstone’s Investment Committee Q1 2025

Disclaimers: Any opinions are those of Cornerstone Financial Solutions, Inc. and not necessarily those of Raymond James.  Every investor situation is unique, and prior to making any investment decisions, consult with your financial advisor.

Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. There is no guarantee that using an advisor will produce favorable investment results.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. It is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Original text CSP #706668. Added: Headings, As always, we prioritize proactive market strategies, evaluating economic trends and potential risks to navigate changing conditions effectively.

Tax-Deferred Investment Mistakes

Feb 4, 2025 | Investing

What Are Tax-Deferred Investments?

Tax-deferred investments allow your money to accumulate tax-free until you make a withdrawal.  (Ideally, after retirement.)  These withdrawals are then taxed as ordinary income.  Traditional IRAs, 401(k)s, and annuities are all examples of tax-deferred investments.

 

Common Ways People Misuse Tax-Deferred Investments

Unfortunately, many pre-retirees misuse these types of investments in the following ways:

 

Taking withdrawals too early.

This can rob your retirement of much needed savings.  In some cases, it can also come with additional penalties.  For example, if you make withdrawals from an IRA prior to age 59½, the money would be subject to a 10% penalty from the IRS in addition to being taxed.

 

Not contributing the maximum annual amount.  

Most tax-deferred investments have a cap on how much you can contribute each year.  But many people vastly undershoot this cap.  It’s quite common to see people put their tax-deferred accounts on the bottom of the pole.  Other types of investments, or even just spending, take priority.  As a result, these people are not benefiting from all that tax-deferred investments have to offer.

 

Contributing after-tax dollars instead of pre-tax dollars.  

Sometimes, it’s easy to get careless and contribute money that you have already paid taxes on.  Remember, when you withdraw that money down the road, it will be taxed again as ordinary income.  That’s called double-taxation, and no one wants that!  Instead, make contributions with pre-tax dollars whenever possible.

 

Not choosing the right investments.  

A tax-deferred account may be great from a tax standpoint, but if you want the money inside those accounts to grow, you have to choose the right investments.  Some types of investments may actually lead to higher taxes in retirement than they would through capital gains in a taxable account.  Always pay close attention to which investments are going into each account you own.

 

Need Help With Your Tax-Deferred Investment Strategy?

If you are concerned you may be misusing your tax-deferred investments or just aren’t sure of it, let us know, we are happy to help!

401(k) plans are long-term retirement savings vehicles. Withdrawal of pre-tax contributions and/or earnings will be subject to ordinary income tax and, if taken prior to age 59 1/2, may be subject to a 10% federal tax penalty.

Contributions to a traditional IRA may be tax-deductible depending on the taxpayer’s income, tax-filing status, and other factors. Withdrawal of pre-tax contributions and/or earnings will be subject to ordinary income tax and, if taken prior to age 59 1/2, may be subject to a 10% federal tax penalty.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Cornerstone Financial Solutions, Inc. and not necessarily those of Raymond James.  CSP # 704811. Exp. 1.24.26