After Several Hours at the Table, the Most Important Decision We Made Was What We Chose Not to Change

A Quarterly Letter from the Cornerstone Investment Committee

After Several Hours at the Table, the Most Important Decision We Made Was What We Chose Not to Change

Each quarter, our Investment Committee steps away from the headlines to ask one question: Has anything fundamentally changed that should change the way we invest on your behalf?

As a South Dakota-based investment committee, we do not make decisions based on the news of the day. We review economic data, evaluate research from several respected investment firms, challenge one another’s thinking, and ask whether what we are seeing should actually change the decisions we make on behalf of our clients.

This past quarter, five themes dominated our discussion: inflation and interest rates, artificial intelligence, corporate earnings, geopolitical developments, and the upcoming November elections. There were, as always, different perspectives around the table. We left with a shared view, and perhaps more importantly, continued conviction in the long-term investment philosophy that supports the plans we have built alongside you.

After several hours of discussion, the most important outcome of our meeting was not what we changed. It was what we chose not to change. More on that in a moment.

Inflation: Reading More Than the Gauge

Outside of Cornerstone, I spend a meaningful portion of my time officiating basketball and soccer. Before every game, officials inspect the ball. The rule book specifies a recommended air pressure range, but experience teaches you quickly that the gauge is not the whole story. Temperature, playing conditions, and the feel of the ball all inform the decision. Having experienced a few concussions from an overinflated soccer ball, I pay closer attention to that process than most officials probably do.

Inflation reminds me of that pregame inspection.

The Federal Reserve has a target, but policymakers are not making decisions based on a single inflation report any more than an official makes a call based solely on a pressure reading. Employment, wages, consumer spending, energy prices, and broader economic conditions all help tell the full story.

Our committee’s view is that inflation may remain elevated longer than many anticipated earlier this year, and that the final stretch back toward the Fed’s long-term objective may prove more difficult than markets expected. That could keep interest rates somewhat higher for longer. Even so, we believe the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain patient than to make significant policy changes in the near term.

Artificial Intelligence: One Player Does Not Win a Championship

There is little doubt that AI is reshaping the way businesses operate and has the potential to drive meaningful productivity gains for years ahead. We remain optimistic about its long-term potential.

I have been coaching basketball for over a decade, most recently this past winter as an assistant with the state champion West Central Trojans. One thing that experience makes clear: a single dominant player rarely wins a championship. Successful teams need shooters, defenders, facilitators, and contributors across the roster. Over a long season, those contributions tend to balance out.

We believe markets may be entering a similar phase. Technology has deservedly led for several years. Our committee believes market leadership has the potential to broaden as earnings growth expands across additional industries and sectors. Rather than positioning around a single winner, we continue to emphasize diversified portfolios that allow clients to participate in long-term growth without depending on any one part of the market to carry the result.

Corporate Earnings: The Number That Matters Most

Over time, stock prices tend to follow one thing more than anything else: corporate profits.

That was another area where our committee found reason for cautious optimism. Despite higher borrowing costs and continued uncertainty, American businesses have remained resilient. Companies continue investing in technology, improving productivity, and adapting to changing conditions.

Our committee views corporate earnings as one of the strongest long-term supports for equity markets. The next chapter of this market may be defined less by a handful of dominant names and more by broader participation across the economy.

Geopolitical Developments: Preparing for the Road Game

Every basketball season includes difficult road games. Coaches cannot control the venue, the crowd, the travel schedule, or every call during the game. The objective is not to control those variables. It is to prepare well enough to compete regardless of the environment.

Families planning for the future face similar challenges. Global developments involving Iran, China, trade policy, and international conflicts all have the potential to influence markets. Our committee continues to monitor these carefully. Based on what we know today, reaching a lasting resolution with Iran appears difficult, and we expect China to remain at the center of many economic and geopolitical conversations for the foreseeable future.

These events deserve attention. They do not change our investment philosophy. History has shown that markets have navigated wars, political upheaval, and global uncertainty throughout the past century. Preparing portfolios for an uncertain environment has proven far more valuable than attempting to predict any single headline.

The Election: Halftime for the Country

Election years have a way of feeling like halftime. There is a pause, a lot of analysis, and considerable speculation about what the second half will look like. Officiating crews use halftime the same way coaches do, reviewing what happened in the first half and preparing for what comes next.

Our committee’s current expectation is that Washington will likely remain divided following the November election. Historically, periods of divided government have often coincided with greater policy stability, something markets have generally viewed as favorable.

Rather than positioning portfolios around election outcomes, we remain focused on what has historically driven long-term investment success: growing businesses, innovation, disciplined portfolio construction, and patience.

What the Investment Committee Decided — and What It Did Not

At this time, we do not believe increasing international exposure is warranted, despite attractive valuations in certain regions. We are also not increasing our allocation to small-cap stocks simply because they have recently attracted renewed attention.

What we did approve was routine rebalancing within applicable discretionary portfolios, to maintain each strategy’s intended allocation and risk profile. Rebalancing is not about chasing recent performance. It is about maintaining the discipline that long-term investing requires.

One of the clearest lessons from years of coaching is that successful teams do not abandon a sound game plan because of one strong quarter or one difficult one. They make thoughtful adjustments when the situation calls for it, trust their preparation, and stay committed to the process.

We believe long-term financial planning requires that same discipline.

The headlines will keep coming. Markets will rise and fall. New technologies will emerge. Political leadership will change. Our responsibility is not to predict each headline perfectly. It is to evaluate new information carefully, challenge our own assumptions, and make thoughtful decisions that position you for long-term success.

Thank you for the trust you place in Cornerstone Financial Solutions. Every member of our Investment Committee takes that responsibility seriously. We look forward to continuing to serve you well.

 

Andrew Ulvestad, CFP®, CKA®, AAMS®, ChFEBCSM

Wealth Manager
On Behalf of the Cornerstone Financial Solutions Investment Committee

About the Cornerstone Investment Committee

Your wealth managers, paraplanner, and portfolio technical strategist make up the Cornerstone Investment Committee, and together they are responsible for the investment strategy behind your plan. The committee reviews market conditions, evaluates portfolio construction, monitors fund performance, and determines whether adjustments are needed, and when they are not. Decisions are made as a team, which means multiple perspectives, healthy challenge, and a disciplined process that does not react to every headline.

Accounts are reviewed and trades are placed daily. The team meets weekly, and more often when market conditions call for it, staying current on research, fund companies, and what is worth watching. Once a quarter, the committee goes deeper, conducting a structured review of overall strategy and bringing in outside investment firms to pressure-test their thinking.

Andrew Ulvestad

CFP®, CKA®, AAMS®, ChFEBCSM

Wealth Manager

Gordon Wollman

MS-Financial Planning, CFP®, ChFC, CMFC®, ChFEBCSM, CRPS®, AWMA®, AAMS®

Founder & CEO, CFS

Wealth Manager, RJFS

Jill Mollner

MBA, CFP®, ChFEBCSM

Branch Operations Manager

Wealth Manager, RJFS

Jory Flanery

AAMS®, ChFEBCSM

Wealth Advisor

Alyssa Ball

Portfolio Technical Strategist

John Delano

Paraplanner

Any opinions are those of Cornerstone Financial Solutions and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including asset allocation and diversification.

This content is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice, an endorsement, or recommendations for any individual. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. To determine what is appropriate for you, consult a qualified professional.

Managed Advisory accounts are charged Advisory Fees in addition to internal fees of investment company products, and should be evaluated when determining the costs of a fee-based account. In deciding to pay a fee rather than commissions, clients should understand that the fee may be higher than a commission alternative during periods of lower trading.  A list of additional considerations, as well as the fee schedule is available in the firms Form ADV (Part 2A) as well as the client agreement. Please ask your Advisor to provide.

May Market Recap

Equity markets continued their rally through May, extending the S&P 500’s positive return streak to eight weeks in a row, the longest stretch since 2023. Tech companies’ strong earnings drove the index to a record high.

AI-driven optimism led the charge for the tech sector, although investors began to focus on real-world returns from AI investments rather than promises of what the technology might do.

Markets also navigated growing tension between strong economic data and persistent inflation pressures. The US economy appears resilient, with solid growth numbers, expanding manufacturing activity and stable labor markets. But higher oil prices tied to geopolitical conflict kept inflation elevated and pushed interest rates higher.

Fixed income markets saw volatility as Treasury yields moved higher. The markets repriced a more hawkish path for monetary policy, with increasing expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve by year end. The 30-year Treasury closed at 5.18% on May 19, its highest level since 2007. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh joined the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at a complex moment, and the committee has become increasingly divided.

We’ll dive into more details below, but first, let’s look at how May finished.

 

12/31/25 Close

5/29/26 Close*

Change
Year to Date

% Gain/Loss Year to Date

DJIA

48,063.29

51,032.46

2,969.17

+6.18%

NASDAQ

23,241.99

26,972.62

3,730.63

+16.05%

S&P 500

6,845.50

7,580.06

734.56

+10.73%

MSCI EAFE

2,892.71

3,093.73

201.02

+6.95%

Russell 2000

2,481.91

2,919.34

437.43

+17.62%

Bloomberg Aggregate Bond

2,348.85

2,355.21

6.36

+0.27%

*Performance reflects index values as of market close on May 29, 2026. 

 

 

Equities soar thanks to earnings
Following the S&P 500’s pullback in the first quarter, incremental progress in the Middle East combined with strong earnings in the tech sector led to yet another historic rally. Earnings in the first quarter of 2026 are on pace for 27% year-over-year growth, more than double consensus expectations. Robust capital spending and consumer stimulus from tax refunds have kept the economy on the rails and chugging along.

 

Job numbers remained steady
Private sector employment grew by 109,000 jobs according to the ADP Employment Survey, the highest level of monthly growth since January 2025. Nonfarm payroll gains were stronger than expected, up 115,000. This growth was broad, with the only sectors reporting lower employment being manufacturing, information technology, financial activities and government. Unemployment remained unchanged at 4.3%.

 

Tough decisions for the Fed
With the FOMC’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment at odds with current conditions, the Fed’s job hasn’t gotten any easier over the past month. With inflation still on the rise due to geopolitical issues and with labor markets stabilizing, the committee may have to choose one battle over the other eventually. That unemployment is seemingly under control makes it more likely inflation will prevail as the greater of two evils competing for attention. The bond market has priced in this assumption as yields climbed across the entire curve, with some reaching near 20-year highs.

 

A busy month for diplomacy
May saw two major events involving the US and foreign entities. US-Iran negotiations limped along throughout the month. A partial, phased deal could come shortly and likely will provide for reopening the Strait of Hormuz as a phase one condition, though additional negotiations are still ahead, and the status of talks remains highly fragile. In Beijing, Presidents Trump and Xi met for a long-awaited summit where they discussed the affirmation of a trade truce and the desire to stabilize the bilateral relationship between both nations.

 

A rocky road to oil supply recovery
With hopes of a US-Iran deal rising, oil prices began to decline. But supply won’t recover overnight. Despite crude prices sinking back down below $100 a barrel, that doesn’t mean that Gulf-supplied oil will snap back to pre-war levels. Supply is unlikely to normalize before July at the earliest, given the logistical hurdles to the resumption of oil shipping and production in the region.

 

International developed markets face challenges
Euro area equities made new highs in May but failed to keep pace with the US and Asia. Pressure on economic activity and prices intensified because of hostilities in the Middle East, but markets have taken note of the crude price dropping off its earlier highs. The UK’s economic resilience was called into question, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership challenged, as more timely data added to the threat of a near-term economic contraction. In Japan, government bond yields rose in May, hitting multi-decade highs in common with yields across developed economies.

 

China faces headwinds
Despite strengthened external demand for China’s electronics exports, the pace of their industrial output has slowed to its lowest levels since mid-2023. A weak domestic construction sector and disappointing consumption show a shift in household spending away from goods and toward services. Yet, China continues to have some of the lowest inflation rates among major economies.

 

The bottom line
With equity markets on a seemingly unstoppable path thanks to tech, there’s good reason for optimism. But inflation is still a concern and will likely continue to be as long as global energy supply is disrupted. Investors stand to benefit from both equity markets in the short term and bond markets in the long term. As usual, steady and consistent strategies that let time do the work remain viable.

 

Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or a loss. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the Raymond James Chief Investment Officer and are subject to change. There is no assurance the trends mentioned will continue or that the forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Economic and market conditions are subject to change. Diversification does not guarantee a profit nor protect against loss.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ National Stock Market. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia and Far East) index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the international stock market. The Russell 2000 is an unmanaged index of small-cap securities. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. An investment cannot be made in these indexes. The performance mentioned does not include fees and charges, which would reduce an investor’s returns.

Companies engaged in business related to a specific sector, including the technology sector, are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification. Bond prices and yields are subject to change based upon market conditions and availability. If bonds are sold prior to maturity, you may receive more or less than your initial investment. Income from municipal bonds is not subject to federal income taxation; however, it may be subject to state and local taxes and, for certain investors, to the alternative minimum tax. Income from taxable municipal bonds is subject to federal income taxation, and it may be subject to state and local taxes.

Investing in oil or the energy sector involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors. Investing in small-cap stocks generally involves greater risks, and therefore, may not be appropriate for every investor. The prices of small company stocks may be subject to more volatility than those of large company stocks. International investing involves additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability. These risks are greater in emerging markets.

Material created by Raymond James for use by its advisors. M26-1094551. Exp 5.29.27.

What’s Happening in the Strait of Hormuz: A Geopolitical Event Affecting Markets in 2026

Geopolitical events can affect markets quickly, especially when they disrupt energy supplies, raise inflation concerns, or create uncertainty about global growth. That is what investors are seeing in 2026 as the conflict involving Iran and the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz ripple through oil prices, interest rates, and market performance

As you probably know, 20% of the world’s oil flows through the Strait.1 With only a few tankers passing through over the last few weeks, the world is facing the single largest supply disruption in history, made worse by the fact that Iran has also struck nearby oil and gas facilities across the Persian Gulf. Oil prices have risen, including Brent crude, the global benchmark.1

Oil is the blood that powers the world economy. And, it’s not just oil that passes through the Strait. Up to 20% of the world’s natural gas and 30% of its fertilizer transported by ship must first transit the Strait before reaching the wider ocean.2

Take a moment to visualize what this looks like. Three products, oil, gas, and fertilizer, all choked off in one of the world’s most important pipelines.

The United States does not heavily rely on oil and gas passing through the Strait, as we have our own supply of both. But Asia and Australia do, which means that goods produced on these continents may become much more expensive. Natural gas is a critical part of producing fertilizer; fertilizer is a critical part of growing food. Both gas and oil are used to produce plastic, which is used to contain nearly everything that gets shipped from one place to another. Shipping, of course, requires oil.

Some countries that normally depend on oil and gas from the Persian Gulf can potentially pivot to other forms of energy. China and India, for example, have enormous coal reserves. But not all countries can do this. And even those that can probably won’t be able to replace all of what they normally get from the Strait.

Also, pivots take time. As a result, many countries simply may not be able to produce the amount of goods they normally do. And as we know from the Law of Supply and Demand, when supply goes down but demand does not, prices rise. Not just for oil and gas, but for everything that is made or transported by oil and gas.

 

The Role Inflation and Interest Rates Play

Here is where the lessons of the Covid years begin to kick in, because we’ve seen something like this before. When supply chains get disrupted, as they were during the Covid shutdowns of 2020, prices rise. We call this inflation.

When the price of goods rises, something else tends to rise with it: The cost of money itself – interest rates. Here in the United States, the Federal Reserve, which is mandated to keep prices stable, typically fights inflation by raising interest rates. (Investors learned all about this after 2020, too.) Higher interest rates make it more expensive to borrow money, which in turn tamps down on spending. Lower spending, in turn, forces businesses to reduce their prices, thereby reducing inflation.

As of this writing, the Fed has not raised the Federal Funds Rate, which is the key interest rate that our central bank controls. But this isn’t the only interest rate that matters. One rate that has jumped in recent weeks is that of the 10-year Treasury Note.3 This interest rate, which is essentially the rate at which the government borrows from investors for a term of 10 years, influences mortgage rates, credit cards, and other types of loans. The fact that it’s on the rise is the market’s way of saying that investors expect interest rates in general to rise, too.

Put all these factors together and you suddenly have a situation that looks a bit like the Covid-era. There are some important differences, of course. For one thing, oil prices initially plummeted during the Covid shutdowns. And it was the combination of snarled supply chains plus a major surge in demand after the world reopened that triggered inflation. But the potential trio of economic disruption, rising inflation, and higher interest rates is doing the same thing it did all those years ago: Inject significant uncertainty into the markets.

Which is why the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq are all in “market correction” territory.4

(A correction, remember, is a drop of 10% or more from a recent high.)

Please note the word “potential” used just a moment ago. That’s because we’re still in hypothetical territory here. We don’t yet know exactly whether and how much inflation will go up, or for how long, or what that will mean for interest rates over the long-term. We certainly can’t predict what the markets will do. Corrections are common, and it’s possible the war could end as quickly as it started.

 

Two Common Investor Mistakes During Uncertainty

But there are two major mistakes an investor can make whenever uncertainty kicks in.

The first is to bury our heads in the sand and pretend everything is fine. As you can see from the analysis you just read, we are certainly not going to make that mistake. Because there’s no point in sugarcoating it: This situation has major ramifications for the global economy. And even if the war were to end tomorrow, that doesn’t guarantee everything will go back to normal overnight. Oil prices alone may remain elevated for some time. (There’s a saying among economists that oil prices rise like a rocket and fall like a feather.)

The second mistake is to take that uncertainty and think the sky is falling. And here is where the major lessons from Covid come into play.

Over the coming days and weeks, we may see plenty of headlines that point out just how serious the situation is. We might see words like “unprecedented” or “historic.” Terms like “correction,” “downturn,” or even “bear market” could be on the cards, too. But if that happens, remember this: We’ve been through this before. And we’ve made it through this before, too.

Close your eyes and think back to how much uncertainty existed in the spring of 2020. Remember when you heard the news about quarantines and shelter-in-place restrictions? Schools and “non-essential” offices closed, and grocery store shelves got frighteningly bare. And the markets reacted to it all.

Remember what happened next? The markets stabilized, rebounded, and expanded.

 

Investing During Market Uncertainty

Covid is the most recent lesson where patience, steadiness, and the ability to look past immediate headlines became more important during times of increased uncertainty, not less. Because while uncertainty creates volatility, it also creates opportunity. Opportunities for companies to adapt, and in adapting, find new ways to grow. Opportunities for the markets to rebound, and in rebounding, reach new heights. It’s not easy to endure the volatility to get to the opportunity. It never is. But the one thing we know for sure is that we do not want to be absent when opportunity comes.

The pandemic was a historic event that had major ramifications for the global economy. It’s possible that what’s happening in Iran will be, too. We don’t know how long it will last, or how deep its impacts will be. But even historic events eventually become just that: History. One day, you may be reading a message titled, “Lessons from Iran.”

 

We’re Here for You

Whether the current volatility resolves or increases, we are monitoring the situation and always available to answer your questions, address your concerns, and examine every development. So, if you would ever like to talk — about Iran, about your portfolio, or anything else — please reach out. We always love to hear from you!

Sources:

“A new oil shock is building,” CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/28/oil-gas-prices-iran-war-hormuz.html

“It’s not just oil. Here comes Hormuz inflation.” Politico, https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/14/hormuz-inflation-helium-fertilizer-00828680

“Treasury yields rise as Iran ceasefire optimism fades,” CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/26/treasury-yields-rise-uncertainty-ceasefire-talks.html

“Dow closes in correction,” CNN, http://cnn.com/2026/03/27/investing/us-stocks-iran

CSP #1051307 Exp 4.6.27

Markets and Global Events: Perspective During Uncertainty A Message from Gordon

When global events create uncertainty, it’s natural to wonder what it might mean for your financial future.

Moments like these are exactly why a thoughtful plan exists in the first place — to provide stability when headlines feel unstable.

To Our Clients: Please know that your situation, your strategy, and the path toward what matters most in your life continue to be reviewed carefully. While markets may react in the short term, your long-term direction remains grounded in disciplined planning and intentional decisions.

With that reassurance in mind, here is some perspective on what has happened and what it could mean moving forward.

 

Understanding the Recent Events

On Saturday, February 28, the United States and Israel launched joint airstrikes on Iran. As part of this operation, Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed. As expected, this development has created increased volatility in financial markets — particularly in oil.

Significant time has been devoted to analyzing the situation and understanding how it could affect clients and portfolios. The primary objective remains unchanged: helping families stay on track toward their goals with clarity and confidence.

Before discussing markets, it is also important to acknowledge the human side of events like these. Thoughts remain with members of the armed forces and innocent civilians impacted by conflict. While this message focuses on economic implications, the human impact always matters most.

 

How Markets Typically Respond to Geopolitical Conflict

No one can predict the future with certainty. However, history provides helpful patterns.

Markets often react to geopolitical crises in fairly consistent ways.

Initially, more risk-averse investors tend to sell quickly. Conflict disrupts production and trade, and disruption creates uncertainty — the primary driver of volatility.

After that, one of two paths usually unfolds:

Scenario 1: Conflict resolves relatively quickly.
Markets often rebound after the initial decline as investors move back in or take advantage of lower prices.

Scenario 2: Conflict continues.
Investors gradually absorb the news and begin treating the situation as just one factor among many influencing markets.

Signs of this adjustment may already be visible. On Monday, March 2, major indices fell early in the day but recovered losses by the afternoon.¹ Sometimes this digestion process takes days. Other times, weeks or months. In both cases, volatility eventually settles.

Because of this pattern, geopolitical events frequently have shorter-term market effects than many expect.

For example:

  • During the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 — one of the most dangerous periods in modern history — the Dow fell only 1.2% and finished the year up 10%.²
  • When Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, the Dow declined more than 18% but recovered completely within a few months.³
  • When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, energy prices surged sharply, but within a year oil markets had largely absorbed the impact.⁴

History never guarantees outcomes, but it does offer perspective.

 

Why This Situation Still Deserves Attention

While markets often recover from geopolitical shocks, this conflict is larger in scale than many recent events.

Iranian counterattacks have already reached nearby countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. Because of this, it is impossible to predict how long the conflict may last or whether it could widen. Investors may be processing an ongoing stream of changing information rather than a single event.

The biggest uncertainty currently centers on oil.

A few important facts help explain why:

  • Iran produces approximately 4.5% of the world’s oil and shares the largest natural gas reserves globally.⁵
  • Iran controls the northern side of the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes. Roughly 20.9 million barrels of oil pass through daily, about 20% of global consumption.⁶
  • Energy facilities in nearby countries have already been struck, forcing some production suspensions. Several major shipping companies have paused operations in the region.

At this time, the Strait of Hormuz is not completely closed, and any closure would likely be temporary. However, even temporary disruptions can cause oil prices to rise.

Higher energy costs can influence:

  • Shipping and travel expenses
  • Food prices
  • Supply chains
  • Inflation
  • Interest rates
  • Corporate earnings

All of which can create short-term pressure on markets.

The key takeaway: geopolitical conflicts rarely cause lasting market damage, but short-term discomfort is possible.

 

The Most Important Principle During Uncertain Times

Conflict creates change.
Change creates uncertainty.
Uncertainty often triggers overreaction.

Many investors lose ground during volatile periods not because of markets themselves, but because long-term decisions become driven by short-term emotions.

The situation in the Middle East may evolve daily — even hourly. Headlines that appear alarming in the morning may change by afternoon. Reacting emotionally to rapidly changing information rarely improves outcomes.

Historically, maintaining a disciplined strategy has been far more effective than making sudden decisions during uncertainty.

 

Ongoing Analysis and Commitment

Continued evaluation of new information remains a priority. If circumstances change in a way that requires action — whether to protect or to take advantage of opportunities — adjustments will be made thoughtfully and communicated promptly.

Questions, concerns, or worries are always welcome. Emotions during uncertain times are natural and valid. The goal is simply to make decisions with clarity rather than reaction.

Serving families through changing markets and uncertain environments is a responsibility taken very seriously. The Cornerstone philosophy has always centered on helping people:

Dream boldly.
Build intentionally.
Lead confidently.

That commitment remains unchanged.

If a conversation would be helpful at any point, please reach out.

Not a Cornerstone Client?

Schedule a no-pressure conversation to see how today’s headlines could affect your investments and income plan, and what changes (if any) might make sense for you.

Sioux Falls:  605-357-8553
Huron: 605-352-9490
Email cfsteam@mycfsgroup.com

  1. “S&P 500 turns positive in dramatic comeback,” CNBC, cnbc.com/2026/03/01/stock-market-today-live-update.html
  2. “How Markets Respond to Geopolitical Crises,” A Wealth of Common Sense, com/2017/06/how-markets-respond-to-geopolitical-crises/
  3. “Stock Market History: More Ups Than Downs,” Forbes, September 27, www.forbes.com/sites/johndobosz/2017/09/20/stock-market-history-more-ups-than-downs/?sh=71324c093951
  4. “Oil market has fully absorbed impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” Reuters, reuters.com/business/energy/oil-market-has-fully-absorbed-impact-russias-invasion-ukraine-kemp-2023-03-09/
  5. “Iran’s main oil and gas production and infrastructure,” Reuters, reuters.com/world/middle-east/an-overview-irans-energy-industry-
  6. infrastructure-2026-02-28/
  7. “The Strait of Hormuz crisis explained,” CNBC, cnbc.com/2026/03/02/strait-of-hormuz-crisis-us-iran-israel-war-shipping-trade-oil.html

CSP #1025042, exp. 3.3.27

2025: The Year in Review

Every January, it’s customary to look back on the year that was. What were the highlights? What were the “lowlights”? What events will we remember? Most importantly, what did we learn?

When I play back the last twelve months in my head, the theme of 2025, to me, can be summed up by three words, three dates, and three numbers:

Words Dates Numbers
Slop February 19 6144
Rage bait April 8 4982
Six-seven December 26 6945

 

LET’S START WITH THE WORDS

In December, three of the world’s most popular dictionaries selected their “word of the year.” Merriam-Webster chose slop: digital content of low quality that is produced usually in quantity by means of artificial intelligence.1

The Oxford Dictionary chose rage bait: Online content deliberately designed to elicit anger or outrage by being frustrating, provocative, or offensive, typically posted to increase traffic to or engagement with a particular web page or social media content.2

Finally, Dictionary.com selected six-seven (sometimes written as “67” but not to be confused with the number “sixty-seven”). Confused? So’s everybody else. Even the dictionary experts didn’t really know what to make of it, defining it as “a viral, ambiguous slang term” and describing it as “meaningless, ubiquitous, and nonsensical.”2 In other words, it doesn’t really mean anything.

If you’ve been online at all this year, you’ve likely encountered at least one of these words. You may have seen AI slop in the form of fake, low-effort pictures and videos. You’ve likely come across rage bait in the form of an inflammatory Facebook post or fear-mongering news headline. And you may have seen one of the “six-seven” memes floating around social media.

Normally, I don’t pay much attention to the word of the year. This time I was struck by something. When you get right down to it, all three words are about things that are fake. Not just in the sense that they often represent things that don’t exist, but in the sense that they are almost never genuine.

Between videos on social media, headlines meant to provoke, and the volume of information available, so much of our time is spent trying to detect what’s true, what’s being exaggerated, and what’s downright fabrication. Those three words sum up just how much around us, especially on our devices, is fake…and how exhausting and demoralizing it can be to detect them.

DIGITAL NOISE AND MARKET UNCERTAINTY

What does this all have to do with finance? Well, thinking about it made me realize how much time investors can spend trying to figure out what is genuine and what isn’t.

Rewind back to the start of 2025 when investor sentiment was mixed. There was hope about the prospect of cooling inflation, falling interest rates, and lower taxes, but concern about the possibility of tariffs and a new trade war with China. President Trump had repeatedly threatened a variety of tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico, and other countries. Would he do it? How would other countries respond? What kind of impact would it have? Was it real, exaggerated, or all just a bluff?

Macroeconomics can be difficult for investors to understand. The economy and the stock market are not the same, but they can indirectly affect each other. I remember the questions nearly every market commentator was asking at the beginning of 2025: How will tariffs impact inflation? How will inflation influence interest rates? What will interest rates do to consumer spending? How much will spending continue to drive economic growth? We considered those questions, too. But investors can easily twist themselves into knots trying to figure out what matters and what doesn’t.

THREE DATES & THREE NUMBERS THAT SHAPED THE YEAR

By February 19, despite a flurry of tariff announcements from the White House, most investors decided to shrug off all the trade war talk. The S&P 500 reached 6,144, its second record high in two days, boosted by the hope that tariffs were more a bargaining chip than a reality.3 It would be the last one for a while.

On April 8 the S&P closed at 4,982, nearly 19% below its February 19th high.3 President Trump’s promise of “Liberation Day” tariffs, a broad and historically high slate of import duties on China, the European Union, and other countries had so spooked investors that the S&P’s value had slid all the way back to where it had been a year prior.

Investors wondered: Is this a real bear market, or just a correction? Are the tariffs permanent or temporary? Everywhere you looked, there were headlines, videos, podcasts, and posts with different information, often with titles like “The Markets Are Just Like They Were in 19XX. Here’s What Experts Think You Should Do Next.” Or “The Last Time the Markets Did X, Y Happened.” What was real? What was exaggerated? What was fake?

And now to the third date: December 26. The S&P 500 hit its most recent all-time high of 6,945.3 (As of this writing – that number may be different by the time you read this.) The index later closed the day slightly lower, but for a brief moment, it was up a staggering 39% from where it landed on April 8.

A YEAR OF EMOTION, ADJUSTMENT, AND RECOVERY

What prompted this incredible turnaround? If I had to sum it up in a single sentence, it would be, “The normalization of things that previously caused uncertainty.” As many of the Liberation Day tariffs were canceled, suspended, or lowered, investors got used to the idea, emotions settled down, and the markets normalized. That enabled investors to turn their attention to other things, like falling interest rates and investments into AI by tech companies.

The end result: 2025 was a fascinating and ultimately highly positive year for stocks.

But what was interesting about December 26 isn’t that the S&P hit an all-time high. That’s a common occurrence in a bull market. What was interesting is that gold also hit an all-time high on the very same day…something that hasn’t occurred since 1975.4 Gold is often used as a hedge against stock market volatility, so for both stocks and gold to hit record highs at the same time suggests many investors are feeling cautious about the future despite the stock market’s success. The cycle begins again: What’s real and what isn’t? What’s signal and what’s noise?

All of these questions are difficult enough. But modern investors also have to contend with other distractions. You wouldn’t have to look hard, on any given day, to find hundreds of articles, videos, podcasts, and posts all designed to confuse you. “Invest in X / Don’t invest in Y.” “It’s time to buy / It’s time to sell.” “Here’s what experts think you should know / Here’s what the experts don’t want you to know.” Some of this can be helpful…but much of it is slop, rage bait, or just plain wrong.

What’s an investor to do when confronted with all this confusion and noise? This brings me to what I think is the real theme of 2025, the most important lesson the year can teach us: 

Success isn’t about constantly trying to detect what we think is fake.

It’s about valuing what we know is real.

WHAT DO WE KNOW IS REAL? 

Let’s start with the dreams and goals you’ve had for years. Those are far more tangible and significant than anything digital could ever be. By focusing on why we invest — for the places you want to see, skills you want to learn, milestones you want to reach, and the people you want to do it all with — we prioritize the meaningful over the distractive. Distractions like daily market movements or the bewildering deluge of slop and rage bait we are flooded with every day.

Another thing? Cornerstone’s investment process. A process far more tried and proven than trying to decipher headlines or wrestling with probabilities could ever be. By focusing on the process we know to work, we can rely on the principles we know to be real…like diligence, patience, and discipline. That’s why we didn’t need to predict everything that would happen in order to have a successful year as investors. We just needed to hold to our process.

And of course, there’s the most real thing of all: The people and relationships that bring true meaning to your life. There are so many voices vying for our attention – on our phones, TVs, car radios, and social media feeds.

The more we tune them out and focus instead on the people who we know care about us, the more we fill our days with all that is genuine and authentic, the more everything that’s fake, frustrating, and unreliable gets filtered out. Slop, rage bait, it all just…fades away.

That’s why I’ve chosen a new “word of the year” for 2026 – meaningfulness. For the more we hold to that word, the more we prioritize it in thought and deed, the more we will know that we are truly on the right path…to the life we were always meant to live.

It was our honor to serve you this past year. We look forward to serving you for many more years to come. Here’s to a happy and meaningful 2026!

 

Warmly,

Gordon Wollman, MS-Financial Planning, CFP®

Founder & CEO, Cornerstone Financial Solutions

Wealth Advisor, RJFS

Sources

1 “2025Word of the Year: Slop,” Merriam-Webster, https://www.merriam-webster.com/wordplay/word-of-the-year

2 “2025’sWords of the Year, So Far,” Time, https://time.com/7334730/word-of-the-year-2025-cambridge-collins-dictionary-oxford-merriam/

3 “S&P500 Historical Data,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-historical-data

4 “TheS&P 500 and Gold Are at Record Highs,” Barrons,  https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-122625/card/the-s-p-500-and-gold-are-at-record-highs-that-s-not-supposed-to-happen–Ras47ZC0A5FwZ556upxY

 

Raymond James advisors do not provide tax or legal services, you should discuss these matters with the appropriate professional.

Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. No investment strategy can guarantee your objectives will be met. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Every investor’s situation is unique, and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment decision.

The S&P 500 is comprised of approximately 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. It is unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. CSP #975954 Exp. 1.6.31.

Understanding the 2025 U.S. Government Shutdown

On Wednesday, October 1, Americans woke up to the news that their government had shut down.1 It is the first such shutdown since 2018, although there have been plenty of near-misses in recent years. In this case, both parties rejected last-minute proposals and counterproposals to fund the government, with the major sticking point being healthcare.

 

What exactly does this mean?

As you know, whenever Congress authorizes a law, the government must spend money to enact it. Sometimes, the authorization doesn’t contain provisions to fund the law so a second piece of legislation is required, known as an appropriations bill. This is where Congress separately appropriates money specifically for the new law.

These appropriations must be renewed, usually by October 1 each year, for the law to remain funded. This is what’s known as discretionary spending, because Congress decides upon its own discretion whether to continue funding the law. Currently, there are twelve appropriations bills that Congress must pass every year. These bills cover defense spending, national parks, food safety, passport applications, airports, and much more. 2

However, as political partisanship has grown so extreme in recent years, it’s become nearly impossible to pass these bills in a timely manner. Instead, Congress usually attempts to package each piece of legislation into a single omnibus bill. And when that doesn’t work, lawmakers turn to something called a continuing resolution (C.R.), which is a temporary spending bill that essentially keeps all government agencies operating at their existing funding levels.

As of this writing, Congress has not been able to agree on any of these options. (Technically, the House did pass a continuing resolution, but it failed in the Senate.) There are many points of contention, but the biggest has to do with healthcare. Specifically, the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits. These credits, designed to help lower income people afford coverage, were first put in place by the Affordable Care Act. They were then expanded by legislation passed during the pandemic. But those credits expire at the end of 2025, meaning that millions of Americans who relied on them to afford coverage may suddenly be without healthcare. That, in turn, may cause premiums to rise for nearly everybody else. Certain people with lower incomes, for example, may see their costs go up by 75% or more.2

Democrats refused to vote for any plan that didn’t extend these credits. Their reasoning is that if the issue is not taken care of now, millions may lose coverage or have to pay more than they can afford. Republicans, on the other hand, contend these credits add to the deficit, were never designed to be permanent, and should be dealt with separately. Both sides have an argument — it’s simply a matter of differing priorities. But, both see this as an opportunity to cast blame on the other and score political points.

 

What happens now?

Because of this gridlock, many aspects of the government that fall under the umbrella of discretionary spending can no longer be paid for. As a result, agencies must shut down all “nonessential services” — although what that means can vary dramatically depending on the agency or service in question. Some services, which are simply too vital to ever stop operating, will continue, although they may not work as fast or efficiently as normal. Think law enforcement. Forest service. Firefighting. Air traffic control. (This may be the single biggest one, so more on this in a minute.) Much of the National Weather Service. You get the idea. However, many people who do these jobs will not get paid, or will be paid much less, until Congress acts.

Other agencies will be hit even harder. Over 75% of employees in the Labor, Commerce, and Education departments have been furloughed. The Environmental Protection Agency, has sent a whopping 89% of its employees home.3 Some agencies, like the IRS, will be able to hold out for longer due to special contingency plans, but those often cover only a week or so before they, too, will be forced to send workers home.

Other government operations, meanwhile, fall under the umbrella of mandatory spending. These are for certain laws and programs that are not required to be renewed annually. (Think Social Security benefits, Medicare, and Medicaid.) These programs will continue operating during a shutdown. Unfortunately, many employees who oversee these programs will be sent home. As a result, there may be delays in helping citizens who need to interact with these services in some way.

The shutdown will continue until Congress either authorizes a new C.R. or begins passing individual appropriation bills. It’s impossible to know exactly how long this will take, but it’s worth noting that shutdowns usually don’t last very long. Most, in fact, only go on for a day or two. But sometimes, shutdowns can drag on for weeks. In 2013, for example, we experienced a 16-day shutdown.4 And, from December 2018 through January 2019, the government shut down for 35 days.4

 

How might it affect the markets?

Shutdowns can cause major disruptions to important services, and they’re especially hard on the people who actually keep our country running. (For this reason, let’s all spare a thought for those government employees who get furloughed during the holidays.) That said, they typically do not have a major impact on the overall economy, usually because they don’t last very long. Shutdowns don’t tend to directly affect the markets, either.

Data suggests the S&P 500 has fallen “an average of 0.4% in the week before a shutdown and gained a total of 0.1% over the length of all shutdowns since 1976.”5 And there has historically been no lasting damage, either, with the S&P 500 rising “about 12% in the 12 months following [a shutdown].”6 Not surprising, considering the markets react to many factors. Important as it is, a shutdown is only one of them. Quite frankly, it’s rare for just one event to have a lasting impact on stocks, even if media headlines suggest otherwise.

That said, shutdowns shouldn’t be taken lightly, either. If prolonged, the effects begin to compound. For example, the last full shutdown, in 2018, lasted for thirty-four days. Towards the end, air traffic controllers, who had been required to work without pay, began calling in sick in droves, resulting in major travel delays and impacts to trade. And the current shutdown comes during a time when economic uncertainty is already on the rise. Inflation has subtly but gradually ticked up this year, while the labor market has slowed down. (As of August, the unemployment rate was up to 4.3%, the highest since 2017 other than during the worst pandemic months of 2020.)7

Approximately 750,000 federal workers could be furloughed as a result of this shutdown, but in an ironic twist, we may not have another jobs report for some time, as the agency responsible for tracking that data is one of those most affected by the shutdown.1

 

Takeaway

For us as investors, there’s no reason to panic, and certainly no reason to make a major shift to our investment strategy. Again, history shows most shutdowns to be limited in duration and modest in impact. At the same time, it’s important we don’t ignore what’s going on either, as there’s simply no telling how long this shutdown will last or how deep it will run. My advice is to enjoy the changing of the season and focus more on preparing for the holidays than on what’s going on in Washington. But in the meantime, the Cornerstone Team will keep a very close eye on your behalf!

 

As always, please let us know if you have any questions or concerns.

Sources:
1“US government shutdown begins as partisan division rules Washington,” Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-government-beginsshut-down-most-operations-after-congress-fails-advance-2025-10-01/

2 “How much and why ACA Marketplace premiums are going up in 2026,” Peterson-KFF Health Systems Tracker, https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/how-much-and-why-aca-marketplace-premiums-are-going-up-in-2026

3 “How the Shutdown Is Affecting Federal Services and Workers,” The NY Times,
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/09/30/us/politics/government-shutdown-furloughs.html

4 “How long do government shutdowns last?” NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/longest-government-shutdown-us-historypresident-administration-rcna234766

5 “Analysis: Potential US government shutdown could dent investor confidence,” Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/potential-usgovernment-shutdown-could-dent-investor-confidence-2023-09-08/

6 “What would a government shutdown mean for markets and the economy?” NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/business/businessnews/government-shutdown-markets-economy-impact-rcna234643

7 “The Employment Situation — August 2025,” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 5, 2025. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including asset allocation and diversification. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. does not provide advice on tax or legal issues. These matters should be discussed with the appropriate professional.

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website’s users and/or members. The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Raymond James.